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Bayou Handicap Picks – The Drama In Louisiana

Posted by Alex Hankewicz on 4/27/2010 10:18:38 AM
Horse Odds: Never Retreat

As we are approaching the end of the current Fair Grounds meet on March 28th, it’s a prelude to this weekend’s Grade II Louisiana Derby stakes festivities. The Crescent City oval is hosting an interesting Grade 3 event. On Friday The 42nd edition of the Bayou Handicap 4YO/up $100,000 guaranteed featuring the winner of last year’s Grade II Distaff Turf Mile on Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs last spring: Tizaqueena.

Horse betting odds: Never Retreat
  • What: Horse Betting
  • When: Friday , March 26th
  • Where: New Orleans La. Fair Grounds Race Course
  • Key Stat: Thoroughbreds – Never Retreat, Category Seven, A She’s Adorable, Tizaqueena, Love To Tell, Dancin Perfect, Apple Martini, Favorite Fantasy, Nicksappealinglady, Bubbler

The Storyline

The 42nd edition of the Grade III Bayou Handicap features a competitive field of four-year-olds and up Fillies and Mares, vying for the $100,000 guaranteed purse money. The race will feature a few interesting storylines. Last year’s winner of this event Love to Tell will be back to defend her title against a formidable foe in the form of Tizaqueena who is red hot after scoring an impressive win for Trainer Mike Stidham in the Feb 27th At the Fair Grounds in the LaCombe Memorial in her only her second start of this campaign.

Bayou Handicap Picks – The Favorite

Darley Stables Tizaqueena making only her second start of this season heads into this event with an impressive three quarters of a length victory on Feb 27th at the Allen LaCombe Memorial at the Fair Grounds. With current meet leading jockey Shaun Bridgmohan on board for Trainer MikeStidham,in her last race Tizaqueena left little doubt this filly is equally adept on Dirt as she is on Turf. Being the only graded stakes runner in this race she ran as the morning line 8-5 favorite and ran from back of the pace to the hand ride victory. There is no reason this horse cannot replicate this effort in the Bayou Handicap. Tizaqueena is a five-year-old daughter of Tiznow whose offspring have gone on to great success.

Bayou Handicap Picks – The Second Tier

If you want to look at possible contenders in this race and those which should be a nice overlay you may want to look at Never Retreat rider James Graham 3-1 on the morning line, if you look at some of Never Retreat’s recent efforts you will see a case of a horse that was tantalizingly close to winning at this meet when on Jan 30th she lost to a nose in the Marie Krantz Memorial then in her start prior to that on Jan 2nd at the Furl Sail Handicap at The Fair Grounds had won the race but was placed second for interfering with eventual winner Category Seven who also looms as a threat in the Bayou Handicap .Category Seven9-2 on the morning line, has solid career earnings of $242,000 dollars and I like the trainer /rider combo of Ken Hargraves and Richard Eramia as well her recent effort in the Furl Sail over a Turf course which was rated Good saw her come from far back to move for the lead at the eight pole.

Bayou Handicap Picks – The Longshots

Trainer Mike Stidham has another charge in this race named A She’s Adorable, 5-1 morning line odds who finished third in the LaCombe behind prohibitive favorite Tizaqueena. A She’s Adorable made a strong rally to finish in the show spot and as she is familiar with this surface. Other possibilities for a nice price include Love to Tell 10-1 morning line odds,Love to Tell

On Jan 30th won the $50,000 Jersey Lily Stakes at Sam Houston and last season this Mike Burgess trained horse won this event Shane Sellers will be in the irons and could make things interesting if the favorites falter.

Bayou Handicap Prediction & Outlook

Although logically Tizaqueena should loom as the strong favorite in this field I am looking for the value play in the form of Never Retreat with James Graham on board.This horse which had a bad case of seconditis may finally have figured it out especially if others can press the leader on this turf surface which has to be looked as soft given the amount of rain at the Fair Grounds lately.

Pick: Never Retreat

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