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Bet on horse racing - Arson Squad Close But No Cigar

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/26/2012 10:39:27 AM

Racebook betting: Arson Squad can’t light up the field

  • WHO: Thoroughbred Arson Squad
  • WHAT: The Cigar Mile – Grade 1 (Race 8)
  • WHERE: Aqueduct
  • WHEN: Saturday, November 29

In Saturday’s Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, Arson Squad encountered traffic trouble turning for home and his rally fell about a length short of victory. Three others beat him to the wire, so he rounded out a juicy $2 Superfecta that paid $8,866.00. If you read Friday’s article, you’ll know we had the top three finishers on our ticket in the correct order (by boxing all but Arson Squad in the second, third and forth slots), but we needed Arson Squad on top.

He was worth a play as the field’s 5-1 second choice. In future articles, I’ll keep firing until we hit one of these Supers. When you bet on horse racing, it usually takes just one good score to make up for a pocketful of losing tickets.

On a brighter note, I’d like to share a story about the final race of the Churchill meet.

I happened to be looking at the past performances for Race 12 at Churchill on Saturday, and wasn’t enamored with the 5-2 favorite, a well-bred Bill Mott trainee named Baryshnikov. The horse had run well to finish second in his career debut going a mile on the Churchill grass. He’s bred to handle both grass and dirt, but the switch to the main track was puzzling. With no dirt form, he looked like an underlay.

In looking at the other contenders, I noticed that #10-Au Moon was well-backed at 4-1, despite beating just two horses in a field of 12 in his debut race at Keeneland. I also noticed the meet’s leading rider, Julien Leparoux, retained the mount. Hmmmmm.

His October 5 breeze at Churchill was sharp, but his October 12 breeze on Keeneland’s polytrack was so-so. In his October 15 debut, he broke 10th and held his position all the way around, beaten 16 ¾ lengths. Au Moon then posted a series of excellent works at Churchill, culminated by a bullet four-furlong breeze on November 24.

Could it be that this horse hated the polytrack and loved the Churchill Downs main oval? The tote board seemed to be indicating as much. The ROI’s for trainer David Carroll in this situation were all excellent, so it appeared to be “all systems go”.

And go he did. Au Moon won by nearly six lengths, with the favorite Baryshnikov finishing second. Au Moon paid $10.80 to win, and the $2 exacta paid $43.40. When you bet on horse racing, sometimes the tote board can put you on a horse you might have otherwise missed. Keep an eye out for Au Moon down the road…he could be a good one.

If you bet on horse racing, visit the Betting Edge weekly for more great tips and advice.

Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions?



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