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Bet On Kentucky Derby – Crunch Time

Posted by Brian Mulligan on 4/25/2011 6:13:32 PM
bet on kentucky derby

As the months and weeks clicked off, the Derby picture went from clear, to iffy, to fuzzy. But now, with only days remaining before the Kentucky Derby, it is crunch time and time for online betting sites handicappers to try to read into not the past but projections.

Before we get to that, a word has to go out to the Lexington Stakes upsetter Derby Kitten. The Kitten’s Joy colt broke his maiden for a $75,000 claiming tag, ran 2nd in an overnight at Tampa and in a minor stakes, then came from last to win going away full of run. He recorded a 91 Beyer but in his other test on conventional dirt, the runner was a very dull 7th.

His status for the Derby is up in the air. Last year’s winner Exhi posted a 94 Beyer and then took his campaign to Canada.

Derby Kitten’s sire carried speed long on grass but his dam was sprint only. The lone full sibling to race, William’s Kitten, won by almost 5 in a mile and a sixteenth dirt route.

The bet Kentucky Derby online jury is still out.

What a runner has done to get the gate the first Saturday in May is in the books, but players have to be able to focus on which runners are set for a peak performance.

At this point, it would not be surprising if Dialed In is the Kentucky Derby odds favorite with or without Uncle Mo in the gate. The sickness to the juvenile champ is a legit concern and no matter how confident his connections may be, players have to be careful.

The top two horses in the Arkansas Derby loom tough. Archarcharch was game in the neck win but the way Nehro closed assures he will take a ton of coin.

As far as Mo is concerned, he was out for a gallop on Tuesday April 19. His trainer Todd Pletcher had some interesting things to say after the exercise. Pletcher: “I think he’s in the same position that every horse in this race is in, that they need to have a really good 19 days. Obviously when you have a gastrointestinal tract infection, you know your appetite is not going to be as good as you’d like for it to be and that type of thing. So we feel like he’s making progress and that he’s doing well but, like I said, he’s got to have a really good 19 days. But so does Stay Thirsty and everyone else.”

Honest? Yes. Realistic? Don’t think so.

Midnight Interlude has speed and the ‘now’ horse thing going for him but experience counts in the Derby and he will be looking to do something 46 others horses tried but failed at the first Saturday in May.

He didn’t run at 2 and until a non-raced juvenile wins, those bets are tough tickets.

The Wood Memorial winner Toby’s Corner has to improve but he’s talented and coming to the race right.

If The Factor races, look for him to be on the lead. He stalked in his Arkansas Derby loss but pretty much needs the lead to have any shot. The concern is that there are some serious stamina issues with this Bob Baffert runner.

The mystery horse in the Derby could very well be Master of Hounds. Handled by world-class trainer Aidan O’Brien, the runner had a rough trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill last year and had to settle for sixth.

He only had the one prep this year but it was a solid race when he just failed to hold on when nailed on the wire in the UAE Derby.

In Hounds second start, he lost to a close one to eventual Group 3 winner Dunboyne Express and then could not handle a lone speed horse.

After an impressive win at Tipperary, he was a good third in a Group 1 when probably just short.

Besides his natural talent, Hounds has a star in his corner in O’Brien and this is not his first rodeo.

He has won the Arlington Million, the Secretariat Stakes and four Breeders’ Cup races. Stay tune to follow this classic scramble.

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