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Delta Downs Betting Tips – Know More Pulls Out A Minor Upset In Louisiana

Posted by Marco Sussman on 11/18/2012 5:30:57 PM

Sports betting players know that fatigue often plays a role in any event, and horse racing is no different. In Saturday’s Grade-3 Delta Downs Jackpot, the presumed favorite will fall victim to fatigue and another talented horse will be the benefactor.

What: Horse Betting
When: Saturday, November 17th, post time TBA
Where: Delta Downs, Vinton, LA
Pick: Know More

Bern Identity kicks off the list of contenders at Delta Downs and he is coming off a win in the non-graded Jean Lafitte (which was held at Delta Downs), his third win in five starts. This two-year-old hasn’t finished lower than third in five starters (although it did take him two attempts to win his maiden race), and his handlers has eyes on Bern Identity landing in the Kentiucky Derby in May. Closing out 2012 with a win in this Grade-3 race would definitely be a boost for Bern Identity heading into his three-year-old campaign.

Central Banker has run only four races, and three of those were maiden (two races) or allowance races.  He did finish second in the non-graded Kentucky Juvenile back in September, however, and both of his first-place finishes have come with Rosie Napravnik on his back, so that is encouraging if that pair can ride into Delta Downs together.

Goldencents has made only two starts, but he won his maiden in his first try and then came up just short in the Grade-1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, so he isn’t off to a bad start. A win at Delta Downs would propel Goldencents into the upper tier of two-year-olds to wrap up 2012, and it helps that he has been paired with Kevin Krigger for both races; never underestimate the connection between a horse and his jockey.

Heaven’s Runway had a rocky start to his professional racing career, finishing seventh in the Grade-3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs, and his handlers may have bitten off a little more than he could chew. However, that hasn’t stopped them from throwing Heaven’s Runway into the fire once again with another Grade-3 race. He’ll likely come into the race as a horse betting underdog, but at least he’ll be on a level playing field in terms of distance as none of the first three horses listed so far have run more than a mile, while this race comes in at 1 1/16 miles.

Hightail is probably going to come into this race as the horse betting favorite, or at least close to it, after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. But he has struggled with this distance as Hightail has finished sixth in both attempts at 1 1/16 miles, and he has had some shaky results in the past, so some are wondering whether the Juvenile Sprint was one of those “catching lightning in a bottle” moments, which definitely happens in horse racing. This is another horse with an eye on the Kentucky Derby in May and after winning at the Breeders’ Cup, Hightail can cap a busy and successful year.

Itsmyluckyday hasn’t finished lower than third in five starts, and he has won his last two in non-graded races, the Fasig Tipton Turf Dash and the Foolish Pleasure. This will be a big jump for Itsmyluckyday both in distance and in competition, but he seems to be forming a solid connection with Manoel Cruz, who was in the saddle for both of Itsmyluckyday’s recent wins.

Know More is trying to bounce back from an extremely disappointing 13th-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and a strong finish in this race would probably lead to his entrance into the Grade-1 CashCall Futurity in a month. Know More has been a stud in 2012, winning the Grade-2 Best Pal Stakes in his debut and then following it up with second-place finishes in Grade-2 races, so competition doesn’t seem to be a problem for this horse, who has been with Garrett Gomez for all four races.

Mylute finished second to Bern Identity in the Jean Lafitte, which came after a fifth-place result in the Grade-3 Arlington-Washington Futurity in September, so he’s probably a mid-pack pick at this point. He would probably be more consistent if Mylute had a consistent jockey, but for now, he is a horse that should be avoided until you see improvement. 

Show Some Magic was also in the field at the Jean Lafitte, finishing way back in sixth, which is his worst result to date. His two-year-old campaign has been something of a mixed bag with two second-place finishes in six starts, but both of those came in maiden races and he still hasn’t won one yet. Show Some Magic will need some magic to get a win on Saturday.

How It Will Play Out

Hightail is riding high after his Breeders’ Cup win, but fatigue could play a factor down the stretch. Go with Know More in your online betting picks.

Delta Downs Betting Picks: Know More

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