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Derby Trial is Travelin Man’s to Lose

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 5/2/2011 10:33:37 AM
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Travelin Man, J J’s Lucky Train, Dominus, Indian Winter, Indiano
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Derby Trial
  • Where: Churchill Downs
  • When: Saturday, April 30th

The Derby Trial is no longer what its name suggests. Not since Calumet Farm’s Tim Tam in 1958 has a horse won both The Derby Trail and The Kentucky Derby. Nevertheless, The Derby Trial usually attracts some pretty talented runners capable of making noise in the 3YO ranks as the season progresses. One such horse is this year’s morning line favorite, Travelin Man (7-5). Let’s analyze his chances along with those of the other contenders.

Many horses in this field have exhibited early speed in their races, including the favorite. The difference is that Travelin Man is capable of carving out fractions of :22 and :44 and change, and keep going…something that none of the other runners have done. That makes Travelin Man the “speed-of-the-speed”. He won his career debut under 122 pounds, so the Derby Trail weight assignment of 121 lbs. shouldn’t pose much of a problem…neither should the extra furlong. I’m looking for #2-Travelin Man to control the pace and take this field gate to wire…I’ll bet him to win at odds of even money or better.

Machen couldn’t quite cut it against the top 3YO’s at Fair Grounds, but could be along for a minor share. J J’s Lucky Train (7-2) looms the main threat if the top choice falters…he’s a model of consistency. Dominus is an interesting, but lightly-raced entrant. Note he finished in front of Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann when both were juveniles. That :23 4/5 first quarter he got away with last out won’t cut it in this spot, though. Indian Winter may appreciate the cutback to one turn, based on his win three back in the 6 ½-furlong San Pedro at Santa Anita. Indiano was a terror in Panama (5-for-5), and grabbed a pair of seconds at Gulfstream Park…another logical player to round out the exacta.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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