CLICK TO JOIN

Remember me Reset Password

      

Does It Make Sense to Bet Favorites?

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/26/2012 11:07:05 AM

One of the great things about betting the horses is that you can do it your way…and win. Some people like betting horses across the board (win, place and show)…others only bet their picks to win (all or nothing). Some like to make multiple-race wagers (doubles, pick-3’s, pick-4’s and pick-6’s), while others prefer to structure single-race exotic tickets like exactas, trifectas and superfectas. Some players like to box horses, while others use wheels and part-wheels, with one or two “key horses”. Sometimes you can structure a bet around a horse you like…other times you can structure a bet around a horse (usually a favorite) you don’t like (like those who had winning exacta, trifecta and superfecta tickets in the Belmont leaving out Big Brown).

Whichever way you decide to attack a race, you’re always looking for value. In other words, getting a return on your investment that exceeds the chances of that investment paying off. That’s where your handicapping skills come into play, which brings us back to the topic of this article…does it make sense to bet favorites? If your analysis of a race tells you that a horse would win the race 9 out of 10 times in this exact set of circumstances, then anything better than odds of 1/9 on the tote board represents value. For example, if a horse goes off at odds of 3/5, and your handicapping analysis tells you that your horse would win this race 9 out of 10 times…you should bet the horse. The math works like this…your horse wins 9 times, paying $3.20 per race (profit of $1.20 per race for each $2.00 wager), loses once for a loss of $2.00, for a net profit of $8.80 (9 x $1.20 = $10.80 - $2.00 = $8.80). You’ve invested a total of $20.00, and your return is $28.80, of which $8.80 is profit. You’ve turned a 44% profit! Even if your horse only wins 7 of 10 such races, you’ve still eked out a net profit of $2.40, for a profit margin of 12%.

Some people say, “I never bet a horse that goes off at less than 2-1.” Well, what if you could bet Secretariat at 3/5 against a bunch of run-of-the-mill allowance horses at Philadelphia Park? Do you think he’d beat them 9 out of 10 times? This example is a bit exaggerated, but I think you get my point…there are situations that come up in horse racing where you’ve got all the edges, and 3/5 is actually a bargain. If a price looks too good to be true, you should double-check your handicapping analysis. But by all means, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a favorite if you honestly believe there’s value in the play.

You can use horses like this in a variety of ways…whatever suits your betting style. Bet them to win, or use them in exotics…they’ll return a profit in the long run, assuming your handicapping is solid.

Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to betonline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions?

Archives

Twitter


↑ Back to page content
Media Logos

At BetOnline, our company’s guiding principle is to establish long-lasting, positive relationships with our customers. BetOnline is perfect for those who like to stay on top of all the latest sports & horse racing odds or play a few games in the online casino. We have built our reputation on giving our clients nothing but high-quality service and once you have worked with us, you will realize why we are regarded as a leader.

From our customer service to our cutting-edge technology, enticing contests and dedication to putting the best product out on the marketplace, BetOnline is always striving to improve and we take the wants and needs of our customers very seriously. We are always looking for suggestions to make our product better, and client input allows us to build a relationship that will last for a lifetime.

Trust is tough to create and it is even tougher to maintain, which is why we always keep the lines of communication open with our clients at BetOnline, and the best part is that it will not cost you a dime.

Head over to our world-famous sportsbook, where you will find live lines for all major sporting events, but that is not all because at BetOnline, you will also find the Betting Edge, which is a constant stream of advice from people that spend countless hours looking over trends and statistics, so you don’t have to. You get an honest and educated opinion for people that truly love sports, and we are always updating the section to keep you up on what’s happening in current in the world of sports.

The racebook is another fantastic section at BetOnline, as you can get a headstart on the Triple Crown season by reading over our articles to give you an idea of the winning horses. We don’t just focus on the Triple Crown at BetOnline; you can find information on races all year around and that will help you out when it comes time to watch the major thoroughbred horse races.

You can also check out our casino, where you can play the latest games powered by the latest technology. From poker to card games, slots and everything in between, we have you covered at BetOnline.

We have contests and promotions galore as BetOnline is all about what our clients want, so check it out and if you have any inquiries, never hesitate to get in touch with us. Betonline because your can!


↑ Back to top