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Early Trends at Arcadia

Posted by on 1/13/2015 8:44:50 PM

Astute handicappers in this sport try never to let their guard down and are always searching for the nuance, bias, or trend that can lead to betting on winners and that is why we all have to pay attention to where the winners are coming from on a daily basis.

We’ll be looking at how the races have been run at Santa Anita so far this meeting and as the curtain fell on 2014, speed was not good on the turf course.

On New Year’s Eve in the first race the winner Enduring Erin came from dead last to get the money at 5-1 under Kent Desormeaux, who has been riding like he was a young pup.

There was just one other turf race that day and the runner that had the lead wilted in the lane to run third. The 6-5 favorite Chati’s On Top had no speed and although she was closing, her rival Smoove It got the first run on her and proved best going away.

The dirt races this day were a mixed bag. If a horse had commanding speed like Serbian Syclone or Eltoninadress, that racer could go wire-to-wire. But the other dirt races on the card were run fairly. When a pace duel developed, closers had no problem collaring the speed.

As we moved into 2015 on the second Sunday of the meeting, stalkers ruled the day. Not one horse went all the way on the lead on either the turf or the dirt. For those racers on dirt, you had to be fairly close up but the winners were making the move at the premium moment with time running out.

It seemed that no matter how slow a horse went on the lead on turf he got caught.

Last Thursday, the favorite Test Ride, who sat about a length and a half off the lead before taking control, won the opener. Speedball Puttybadshark completed the early double as she opened up 7 lengths early and prevailed though getting tired.

A router with speed won the third and Forest Chatter took the heat of a speed down on the tricky hillside course in the next race and drew away by over 4 lengths in the turf sprint.

Bow Tie Belle proved that a good dirt racer could win from the clouds in the 6th race as she was 2nd to last early but rallied to win by over 5 lengths.

Not Too Shiny won down the hill in a conventional way, sitting about 3 lengths off the lead and getting up by a head.

In the last race of the day, underrated rider Martin Pedroza coaxed Undergroundrailroad on the lead and he won virtually wire-to-wire.

On January 9, only one horse, Two Six Wins, was able to control the pace and the outcome. The winners were all close up early and then just kicked in time.

With the way things change, bettors need to keep a log and maintain records as to the styles that are successful.

With due diligence, winners will be found.

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