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Glimpse Of The Future

Posted by on 11/25/2014 9:18:28 PM

Last week the Kentucky Derby future odds were updated and bettors can get a clue as to who’s hot and who’s not by some of the movement of the odds.

Two groups put out these odds, Wynn from Vegas and William Hill from across the pond and there are minor differences.

On both lists, Bob Baffert’s student American Pharoah was the leader in the clubhouse and the shortest price offered. He was 11-1 on Wynn and 15-1 on Hill.

This runner is 2 for 2 and was the morning line favorite for the Breeders’ Cup but had to be scratched. He has a deep bruise in his left front foot but X-rays showed no fracture.

His trainer was disappointed by optimistic, Baffert: “I’ve had horses scratched close to a race but this is probably the most disappointing. We all saw the way he was training. He’s something special; I haven’t had a colt like this in a long time. But he’s going to be OK. He’s going to be fine, you’ll see him in the spring.

Over the years, Baffert has not tried to pull the wool over the media’s eyes but has been a pretty straight shooter. That is why these comments are so interesting.

Carpe Diem , who was 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was tabbed at 20-1 by the Vegas guys and 25-1 by William Hill.

The blood is there for Carpe Diem to have a nice career as he is kin to J.B’s Thunder, who was a Grade 1 winner and near $300,000 earner.

Texas Red came from the clouds to beat Carpe Diem BC Day and he was a similar price to that runner.

There were also a couple of other horses that had their odds dropped. Blofeld opened up at 100-1 but is not 30-1. If you figure that Calculator adds up you better bet him soon.

He dropped from 100 to 60-1 already. Daredevil started at 85-1 and shifted to 45-1 last week. Daredevil has a future. He is kin to Albertus Maximus, who won the Grade 1 Donn, the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and earned over $1.3 million in his career.

Lord Nelson has won 2 of 3 races and was 4th in a live FrontRunner stakes. He opened up at 85-1 and is currently 65-1. At first glance his pedigree looks modest but go deep in the family and you’ll find Miss Linda, who won 8 of 21 starts, won a Grade 1 and earned nearly $900,000 in the 1980s when that was real money.

Rolling Stones fans have somebody to root for as Jumpin Frac Flash was added to the list after winning a maiden race by 5 lengths.

Baffert could get action with his runner Dortmund, who opened his career with a 4 and 3 quarters length win. The son of Big Brown dropped from 150-1 to 45-1.

Granted, to wager on a horse on a race that won’t be run for 6 months sounds crazy but if a runner catches your eye, or if you delve into his pedigree and find class, taking 100 or 200-1 doesn’t sound so ludicrous anymore.

Especially if the horses wins the first Saturday in May.



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