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Florida Derby lines set stage for Derby Trail

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/26/2012 10:23:26 AM
florida derby oddsRegardless of the outcome, it’s unlikely that any of the participants in Saturday’s Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park will be pointed for the Run for the Roses. Derby fever, however, can strike those you least suspect, so we’ll just have to wait and see. The Florida Derby’s another story. Dunkirk, Quality Road and Theregoesjojo all look like Kentucky Derby material.

Florida Derby odds: Quality Road should get the job done

  • WHO: This Ones for Phil, Big Drama, Quality Road, Dunkirk
  • WHAT: The Swale, The Florida Derby
  • WHERE: Gulfstream Park
  • WHEN: Saturday, March 28

Probable Florida Derby favorite Dunkirk needs a win badly to be assured of a spot in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, and his connections are going all-out for a win Saturday.

Quality Road possesses quality speed, and appears capable of carrying that speed a long way. To assure that Quality Road doesn’t get away with soft fractions on the front end, Pletcher and company entered Dunkirk stablemate Europe in on the Florida Derby odds in hopes that he can keep Quality Road company for at least the first six furlongs. That should set things up for Dunkirk’s powerful closing kick. If Dunkirk gets even a marginally better trip than he did in his first two starts, he should be tough to deny.

If you’re contemplating the exacta, consider using Theregoesjojo underneath. Although he was beaten by Quality Road last out by more than four lengths, his breeding and running style suggest that he’s better suited to two turns than Quality Road. Look for him to turn the tables in this spot.

Trainer David Fawkes has declared Big Drama ready to go for The Swale Stakes despite the 3 ½-month layoff. This Ones for Phil was no match for him as a 2YO, but has since run a huge Beyer Speed Figure (116) going six furlongs at Gulfstream, and appears quite capable of handling the seven furlong distance of The Swale. Look for the masterful Garrett Gomez to work out a pace-pressing trip from the tricky inside post and get the job done at odds of 5-2 or better.

If you get up early enough to watch the Dubai World Cup races, you might want to bet on #4-Asiatic Boy in Race 7 – The Dubai World Cup at odds of 3-1 or better. He finished second in this race last year to the mighty Curlin, and there’s certainly no Curlins in this year’s edition. Race 2 on the Dubai card goes off at 9:40 AM EDT, and the probable post time for Race 7 is 1:30 PM ET. For a change of pace, why not bet on horse racing halfway around the world. After all, it’s still the same beautiful sport! Good luck and happy gambling!

For more Florida Derby lines and other horse racing odds, visit the Racebook.

Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions?



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