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Focus On Woodbine Turf Sunday

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 9/16/2011 6:12:01 PM
horses

Who: Thoroughbreds – Meistersinger, Malibu Glow, Prayer for Relief, Alternation, Awesome Bet
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Super Derby
Where: Louisiana Downs
When: Saturday, September 10th

One race this Saturday with Breeders’ Cup Classic implications is the Grade 2 Super Derby for 3-year-olds at Louisiana Downs. There are several up-and-coming Super Derby contestants that could stamp themselves as BC Classic contenders with another move forward. Let’s break down this field of ten:

#1-Meistersinger: I hate to ruin the surprise right off the bat, but Meistersinger is my pick to win The Super Derby. He just keeps improving under the watchful eye of the ever-patient Graham Motion. His Beyer Speed Figures have risen with every start, and his 10-length win last out vs. older second-level allowance runners at Delaware Park couldn’t have been any easier. The extra distance of The Super Derby should pose no problems, and his tactical speed should assure a ground-saving, trouble-free trip from Post 1. A more experienced Awesome Bet closed into a blistering pace to get the best of Meistersinger in The Barbaro two back, but the pace here should be moderate, and I’m looking for Meistersinger to turn the tables on that rival. I’ll bet on #1-Meistersinger to win at odds of 7-2 or better, and key him on top in exactas with #3-Malibu Glow, #5-Prayer for Relief, #6-Alternation and #9-Awesome Bet. If Meistersinger wins this, keep a close eye on him down the road, as he already owns a two-turn win over the Churchill strip.

#2-G. W.’s d’Oro: I can’t use a horse with too many periods and apostrophes in his name. Seriously, he appears to be overmatched.

#3-Malibu Glow: Interestingly, Hall-of-Famer Mike Smith takes over the mount on Malibu Glow…that can’t hurt. The Weaver trainee owns a win at the distance, and didn’t disgrace himself in The Travers last out, beating half the field. Still, he’s had two chances vs. graded company, and could do no better than fifth. I’ll use him underneath in the exotics.

#4-Populist Politics: Local runner couldn’t hold off 6-1 shot Trubs last out when favored in the prep for this race. With a positive 4-pound shift in weight, he might get the better of that rival on Saturday, but the invaders look too tough.

#5-Prayer for Relief: This colt is vastly improved as a 3YO, going a perfect 3-for-3, including a pair of graded Derbies. Still, I can’t get too excited about him shipping in from the left coast as the favorite, especially when it’s not clear that this race was always part of the plan. Prayer for Relief’s snappy work on Sunday apparently convinced his connections to take a shot here. I’ll try to beat him at short odds.

#6-Alternation: Besides the horse to his immediate left, this beautifully-bred colt is the field’s only other Grade 2 winner at the distance. It may not be fair to hold the Jim Dandy flop against him, as he was coming off a 2 ½-month break, but he’ll need to rebound with a top effort to get the job done here. It could happen, but I’ll stick with the sharp rail horse, and use this guy underneath in exactas and tri’s.

#7-Trubs: Trainer Al Stall has managed this horse well, winning a pair of minor stakes in The Bayou State. The water gets a lot deeper here, though, and high 80’s on the Beyer scale won’t cut it. Trubs will have all he can do to defeat Populist Politics…much less pass the class test.

#8-Mr. Woodrow: This Texas-bred returned from a long layoff to score easily on the LaD lawn. I guess his connections figure that now is as good a time as any to see if he’s as effective on dirt. With that breeding (being out of an Alleged mare…327 Turf Tomlinson), I’m guessing he’s not.

#9-Awesome Bet: This guy scored at 9-1 in The Barbaro (note comments above), but wasn’t much of a threat to Prayer for Relief in The West Virginia Derby. He’s also disadvantaged by a negative 4-pound weight shift vs. Prayer for Relief. A minor award looks like the ceiling here.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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