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Full Plate of Kentucky Derby Preps This Weekend

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 2/22/2010 6:30:26 PM
WHO: Thoroughbreds – Eskendereya, Stay Put, Dublin
WHAT: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Fountain of Youth, The Risen Star, The Southwest
WHERE: Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park
WHEN: Saturday, February 20th

Kentucky Derby hopefuls will be lining up at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Park on Saturday. Let’s see if we can ferret out the winners of The Fountain of Youth, The Risen Star, and The Southwest, and fatten our bankrolls in the process.


The Fountain of Youth appears to be lacking pace, which will make it doubly tough on closers over this typically speed-favoring surface. The winner is likely to come from one of several presser/stalker types. I’m leaning toward Eskendereya, who has been training forwardly and should appreciate the stretch-out. He won in front-running fashion last out going a one-turn mile, but I expect him to revert to his usual stalking tactics here. This horse has what it takes to be a major factor on the Triple Crown trail. Buddy’s Saint is talented and unbeaten, but may need the race. Jackson Bend is a tough little customer, but may be overbet. Ice Box ran a big one in his comebacker, but must overcome a difficult outside post. Lost Aptitude is an interesting newcomer, having raced on grass exclusively. He’s shown speed in all of his two-turn starts, but it’s hard to tell if that will be the case on dirt. I’ll bet on #8-Eskendereya to win at odds of 7-2 or better.


Unlike The Fountain of Youth, there’s ample early lick in The Risen Star, so the closers should perform well. While Stay Put made a last-to-first move in his most recent start, I don’t expect him to come from the clouds in this spot. In the race prior, he worked out a nice stalking trip, and that would serve him well again on Saturday. He won carrying 122 lbs. last out, and will be dropping six lbs. for his stakes debut. Trainer Steve Margolis is having a fabulous meet, and the trainer/jockey tandem of Margolis and Theriot have won at a 23% clip in 2009-10, with a positive ROI of $2.12 (for each $2.00 bet). Favorites Drosselmeyer and Ron the Greek figure to be tough, but their odds won’t be very enticing. My money’s on #9-Stay Put at odds of 6-1 or better.


The Southwest has attracted a trio of California-based runners, led by the highly-regarded and undefeated Conveyance. He’s the speed of this field, but could get an early argument from either Dryfly to his inside or Mission Impazible to his immediate outside. Dublin figures to be the beneficiary, as he breaks from Post 3 and should enjoy an inside, stalking trip. Dublin underwent minor throat surgery after his lackluster effort last November in The Iroquis at Churchill Downs. He’s been training up a storm for D. Wayne Lukas, and could recapture the form that propelled him to victory in the Grade 1 Hopeful last summer at Saratoga. I’ll bet on #3-Dublin to win at odds of 7-2 or better.


Those are my horse racing betting tips for this weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!    

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