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Heavy Hitters in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby Preps

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 3/12/2010 2:43:50 PM
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Super Saver, Odysseus, Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Dublin, Caracortado
  • What: Horse racing betting tips – The Tampa Bay Derby, The Rebel, The San Felipe
  • Where: Tampa Bay Downs, Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita
  • When: Saturday, March 13th

Last year’s top 2-year olds, like Super Saver, Noble’s Promise and Lookin At Lucky will make their 2010 debuts on Saturday. They’ll face emerging talents such as Uptowncharlybrown, Odysseus, Cardiff Giant, American Lion, Sidney’s Candy and Dave in Dixie in what promises to be a memorable day on the 2010 Kentucky Derby trail. Let’s take a brief look at The Tampa Bay Derby, The Rebel and The San Felipe, and try to identify the winners.

A few weeks ago, I tried to beat the Todd Pletcher-trained Rule with Uptowncharlybrown in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. My thinking was that the speedy Rule was coming off a layoff and ‘Charly had sharp recent form over the somewhat quirky Tampa Bay Downs surface. Rule won and Charly finished a respectable third. I haven’t learned my lesson, because I’m picking Odysseus Saturday to defeat the highly-regarded front-runner Super Saver, who, like Rule, is making his first start of the year. Super Saver probably won’t encounter much pressure on the front end, but I’m guessing that Odysseus will reel him in late at overlaid odds of around 3-1.

The field for The Rebel is of extremely high quality, with a trio of Grade 1 winners in Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise and Dublin. Dublin appears to be the “wise guy” horse, as his form has risen considerably since he underwent minor throat surgery prior to his 3YO debut. He encountered several difficulties in that race, but kept coming to miss by less than a length. Still, he has yet to win a 2-turn race, so I’m taking a stand against. Noble’s Promise has lost twice to 2YO champ Lookin At Lucky by a combined margin of 1 ¼ lengths. Nether horse has raced on dirt, but Noble’s Promise has trained on it all his life, so I’m giving him the edge. I’ll bet him to win at odds of 2-1 or better.

Caracortado (Scarface in English) will be tough to beat in The San Felipe. He’s 5-for-5 lifetime with a pair of wins at the track and distance. His “stalk and pounce” style usually leads to a good trip, and journeyman jockey Paul Atkinson has ridden him flawlessly. It’s refreshing to see that the connections are sticking with Atkinson, and not opting for a more high-profile rider (as is the case with Dublin). Sidney’s Candy will take the field a long way on the front end, and American Lion as well as the late-running Dave in Dixie will make their presence felt, but in the end, the favored Caracortado should prevail.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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