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Horse Racing Betting - Whitney, Arlington Million highlight weekend action

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/26/2012 10:07:16 AM

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  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Commentator, Presious Passion
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Whitney Handicap, The Arlington Million
  • Where: Saratoga, Arlington
  • When: Saturday, August 8th


With seven Grade 1 stakes races this weekend (six on Saturday), there’s certainly no shortage of top quality horse racing to sink your teeth into if you bet horses. I’ll focus on The Whitney Handicap and The Arlington Million, which I think will yield some generous prices.

In The Whitney Handicap at Saratoga, the venerable Commentator will be sent off the favorite (8-5 morning line odds), but his price may be a fair one for several reasons. First, he has failed to reach the century mark on the Beyer scale in his previous three outings, so if you’re betting here, you may want to look elsewhere. Second, his latest victory in the mud vs. NY-breds at Belmont won’t scare anyone. Third, he’s an eight-year-old, which may cause bettors some concern. Finally, the presence of the speedy Tizway may lead some to believe that Commentator could get caught up in a speed duel, thus compromising his chances.

Now let’s look at the positives. He’s been training lights out over Saratoga’s deep training track, which signals his fitness. He’s coming off an easy victory, which should serve as a perfect prep for this tough assignment. He loves it at Saratoga (6-4-0-0 lifetime), and is shooting to become just the third three-time winner of this prestigious event. He has shown the ability to relax on or near the lead for his current pilot, John Velazquez. This tractability, as well as his outside post, will prove beneficial if Tizway gets involved in the early going. Finally, even at his advanced age, he’s still the fastest and classiest horse in the race. I’ll bet him to win at odds of 3-2 or higher.

I have a bit of a dilemma in The Arlington Million, because I’m a big fan of the top three contenders, Gio Ponti, Einstein and Presious Passion. All three are marvelous race horses, and all three enter this event in top form. I’m backing Presious Passion, because it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be pressed early, and when this guy is left alone on the front end, he’s really tough to get by. I’ve written about this horse many times in the past, and he’s done some things recently that are mind-boggling. You just don’t see classic distance turf runners jump out to huge leads, get caught at the top of the stretch, then find another gear to hold off the closers. Presious Passion is one-of-a-kind, and he’s consistently underbet. He’ll be the third choice in The Arlington Million. I’ll bet him to win at odds of 4-1 or better. One word of caution...if the course is softened up by rain late in the week, I’ll probably scale down my play, as he prefers firm going.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to betonline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions?

 

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