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Horse racing betting tips - Arson Squad the Key in Cigar Mile

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 11/9/2015 10:52:05 AM

Racebook tips: The Cigar Mile

  • WHO: Thoroughbred Arson Squad
  • WHAT: The Cigar Mile – Grade 1 (Race 8)
  • WHERE: Aqueduct
  • WHEN: Saturday, November 29

While it’s always prudent to take speed figures into consideration when handicapping a horse race, other factors often limit their importance. That appears to be the case in Saturday’s G1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. Horse racing betting tips are a dime a dozen at the race track but, for what it’s worth, I’ll toss one out on the Cigar Mile…pssssst, bet on Arson Squad. His Beyer Speed Figures don’t point him out, but several other factors do.

Arson Squad does his best running on dirt. From July of 2007 through August of this year, however, he labored over the synthetic surfaces in California, and the results weren’t pretty. He failed to hit the board in seven starts, and was sent East under the care of top trainer Rick Dutrow.

Arson Squad has won his last two starts on the main oval, capturing the G2 Strub Stakes at Santa Anita in February of 2007 (before installation of a synthetic surface), and the G2 Meadowlands Cup Handicap last out. Both victories came from off the pace. There’s a ton of speed in the Cigar Mile, which should set things up nicely for a closer like Arson Squad.

Arson Squad should also benefit from the services of jockey Garrett Gomez, who rode him to victory in the aforementioned Strub Stakes. Gomez is arguably the top jockey in North America, and should be able to work out a ground-saving trip from post #2. According to Dutrow, Arson Squad couldn’t be training any better over the Aqueduct strip, so it would appear he enjoys the home-court advantage as well.

As for the competition, here’s where the speed figure angle comes into play. In this nine-horse field, the top lifetime Beyer Speed Figures on a fast main track range from 118 to 95. Arson Squad sits in the middle with a 106. The horses with higher speed figs, however, are mostly front-end types, and could wilt from the pace pressure. Bribon, with a lifetime best of 118, is a versatile sort, but must answer the “class” question.

Enough horse racing betting tips: I’ll key Arson Squad on top in a $1 superfecta at odds of 7-2 or better, and box the field in the second, third and fourth slots. The ticket looks like this: 2/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 for a total of $336. If your budget is limited, try the 10 Cent Super for an investment of $33.60.

As far as horse racing betting tips go, you probably could do worse. Happy gambling!

Hit up the Betting Edge every week for more horse racing betting tips and advice from Pete Mitchell and the betonline.com team.

Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to betonline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions?

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