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Key Animal Kingdom on Top in All Exotics

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 6/16/2011 12:06:32 PM
belmont
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Belmont Stakes
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Animal Kingdom, Master of Hounds, Stay Thirsty, Santiva, Brilliant Speed, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford
  • Where: Belmont Park
  • When: Saturday, June 11th

I’ve got two opinions about the 143rd Running of The Belmont Stakes:

  1. Animal Kingdom is the best horse in the race.
  2. The horses that did not participate in The Kentucky Derby are toss-outs.

Let’s analyze the race and formulate a betting strategy.

For the first time in history, the top seven finishers in The Kentucky Derby are running in The Belmont Stakes. The 12th-place Derby finisher, Stay Thirsty, is also taking a stab at Belmont glory. I like Stay Thirsty’s chances of landing in the superfecta better than those of the four Belmont starters that didn’t participate in The Run for the Roses, namely Ruler On Ice, Monzon, Prime Cut and Isn’t He Perfect.

Animal Kingdom’s merits are by now obvious. Still, he’s liable to go off at around 9-5, which to me represents value. Unlike The Preakness, where he had two weeks to prepare, didn’t have a workout between races, and shipped in to an unfamiliar track on the day of the race, his Belmont preparations were more conventional. With a three-week interval, he was able to ship in early, post a bullet 4-furlong breeze with a strong gallop-out over the track (with regular rider John Velazquez aboard), and shows no wear and tear from his Triple Crown campaign. He’ll get a more favorable pace scenario in The Belmont, and should love the 1 ½-mile distance. Try to beat him at your financial peril

Now, for the toss-outs:

#3- Ruler On Ice couldn’t get to Concealed Identity in The Federico Tesio, finishing two lengths back in second. Concealed Identity made no impact in The Preakness, finishing 10th. By Roman Ruler out of a Saratoga Six mare, there’s not much in this horse’s pedigree that suggests a mile-and-a half will be good for him. Toss.

#7-Monzon has had three cracks at graded stakes company, and could finish no better than fifth. The last time I checked, the superfecta only pays for the top four. Toss.

#8-Prime Cut picks up ten pounds off his 3rd-place finish in The Peter Pan. His connections hemmed and hawed about running in this race...not exactly a strong vote of confidence. Toss.

#11-Isn’t He Perfect is far from perfect. Similar to Monzon, he’s tested the graded stakes waters four times, finishing no better than fifth. He checked in 9th in The Preakness. Toss.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Master of Hounds, Stay Thirsty, Santiva, Brilliant Speed, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man or Shackleford rounding out the exotics, so I’m using them all, and hoping that the higher-priced horses in that group crack the top four. My bet combos will be as follows (risk amounts are for $2 wagers):

$2 Exacta 9/1,2,4,5,6,10,12 Total Cost: $14
$2 Trifecta 9/1,2,4,5,6,10,12/1,2,4,5,6,10,12 Total Cost: $84
$2 Superfecta 9/1,2,4,5,6,10,12/1,2,4,5,6,10,12/1,2,4,5,6,10,12 Total Cost: $420

Those are my horse racing betting tips for this year’s Belmont Stakes.

Best of luck and happy gambling!

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