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Last Call for Connemara

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/16/2010 4:33:45 PM
Horse Racing Betting Tips

  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Connemara
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Lexington
  • Where: Keeneland
  • When: Saturday, April 17th

There’s only one horse in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland that can break into a potentially oversubscribed Kentucky Derby. That horse is Connemara. He should get the proper pace setup, and is not likely to encounter as much trouble as he did last out in The Lane’s End at Turfway Park. Let’s take a look at his competition.

#1-Krypton: He’s one of five members of the Lexington field that has won his only start at Keeneland (the others being Bushwhacked, Call Shot, Heavenville and Chief Counsel). In Krypton’s case, that win came last out in an entry-level allowance at about 7 furlongs, so his recent form is a plus. He has yet to establish his credentials vs. stakes company, however (if you disregard his soft turf try at Belmont last fall).

#2-Uptowncharlybrown: This runner has some talent, and he’ll be the sentimental choice after his trainer Alan Seewald passed away unexpectedly Monday. ‘Charly had a difficult trip in The Tampa Bay Derby, and has yet to race on synthetics, so he’s a hard one togauge. Likely to be an underlay at morning line odds of 4-1.

#3-Distorted Dave: Drew off in his 3rd try vs. entry-level allowance foes last out at Santa Anita. His top Beyer Speed Figure of 81 indicates he’ll have to raise his game a notch or two.

#4-Bushwhacked: Sheppard runner just broke his maiden here, but his 90 Beyer will open some eyes. This will be his first 2-turn test…not an easy spot to try something new.

#5-Call Shot: His two starts at Gulfstream were respectable, and the bullet breeze here on April 5th signals this colt’s readiness. Chance to hit the board at around 10-1.

#6-Prince Will I Am: Second behind well-thought-of Drosselmeyer two back was this guy’s best try. Question mark on poly.

#7-Lonesome Street: Game second behind Exhi in The Rushaway suggests he fits here. Continues to fire bullets in the A.M.

#8-Exhi: This guy’s got speed, but he’ll be pressed by Krypton and possibly Lonesome Street. Top connections (Pletcher, Albarado) may lead to an underlaid price.

#9-Heavenville: Another hailing from a top barn (Asmussen) with go-to rider (Bridgmohan) aboard. La-bred is fresh off a romp in a restricted stakes, and note he won his career debut here by daylight. Major player at an overlaid price of 12-1.

#10-Connemara: I’m still waiting for a break-out race…have a feeling that this will be it. I’ll bet him to win at odds of 4-1 or better.

#11-Kettle River: This horse took some money in The Sham (3.90-1) off his entry-level allowance win in early January. He never fired in that race, however, and is tough to get a handle on in this spot. An improved effort would come as no surprise.

#12-Chief Counsel: Mott and Desormeaux are a formidable team, but this guy hasn’t done much to get the blood boiling. Pass.

These are my horse racing betting tips for The Lexington. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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