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Lexington Stakes odds – Square Eddy likely favored in wide open field

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 4/26/2012 10:17:44 AM
Lexington Stakes oddsSquare Eddy will probably go favored in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes odds at Keeneland, but he’s certainly no lock. With a full field of 12 scrambling for a final shot at the graded earnings necessary to make the Kentucky Derby odds lineup, there may be a few surprises in store.

Let’s take a look at each member of the Lexington field, and make our selections.

Lexington Stakes odds: Square Eddie has the talent but may not be cranked

  • WHO: Square Eddy, Hull
  • WHAT: The Lexington Stakes
  • WHERE: Keeneland
  • WHEN: Saturday, April 18

#1-Jeranimo: This guy hasn’t gotten much respect at the windows, but he’s managed to hit the board in all four career starts. Perhaps he’ll be another victim of Pioneerof the Nile to step forward after leaving the West Coast. Regular rider Brice Blanc ships in for the mount.

#2-Omniscient: He’s won his last two starts, both of which came going two turns at Fair Grounds. His Beyer Speed Figures have risen steadily, and this well-bred son of Pulpit is in the capable hands of trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Robbie Albarado. He’ll try poly-track for the first time in the Lexington.

#3-Pitched Perfectly: Trainer Barclay Tagg has taken over for Gary Contessa. The speedy Pitched Perfectly hasn’t run since late January, and has yet to try the poly. He should be a factor early.

#4-Brave Victory: Here’s another one that lacks experience over the poly-track. Zito trainee has failed to hit the board in three tries vs. graded company. Perhaps the surface switch will get him over the hump.

#5-His Greatness: Surprise third-place finisher in The Illinois Derby (at 51-1) wheels back in two weeks for this event. Perhaps his low-profile connections have decided to strike while the iron is hot. Colt finished sixth here last fall behind Square Eddie in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity.

#6-Masala: Encountered traffic last out when fourth to I Want Revenge in The Gotham. He should move forward off his first two-turn try… that is, if he likes the poly.

#7-Conservative: Phipps homebred looks like he’s starting to figure things out. His Beyers won’t scare anyone, though.

#8-Square Eddy: Likely favorite is by far the most accomplished member of this field. He could win on class alone, despite the three-month layoff due to injury. Connections don’t need a win here to make the Kentucky Derby field, however, so he’s probably not fully cranked.

#9-El Crespo: It’s hard to picture a Kentucky Derby winner with a name like El Crespo. However, this well-bred colt should earn his way to Louisville with a top-three finish. Jockey Castellano is two-for-two aboard this G. Watts Humphrey, Jr. homebred.

#10-Parade Clown: Red-hot jock Leparoux takes over the mount and the shades come off. This colt’s been based at Keeneland all along, so he should move forward off that fourth-place finish in The Lane’s End.

#11-Advice: The blinkers didn’t do the trick last out at Sunland, so off they come. Interesting that Garrett Gomez winds up here. Pletcher/Gomez combo may result in an underlay, however.

#12-Hull: By far the most intriguing member of this unfathomable bunch. He was sold for a reported seven-figure sum after his dazzling career debut at Fair Grounds and romped last out at $.05-1. Son of Holy Bull should be able to negotiate two turns, especially with the short stretch run of this 1 1/16th-mile event.

Selections:

Win: #12-Hull
Place: #9-El Crespo
Show: #8-Square Eddy

Hull may indeed be this good. With a win here, perhaps he’ll be pointed to The Preakness. I hope this horse racing betting tip helps you turn a profit this weekend.

For more on Lexington Stakes odds or racebook lines, stay updated with the Betting Edge.

Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to betonline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions?

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