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Mother Goose, Queen’s Plate Headline Weekend Action

Posted by Pete mitchell on 6/24/2011 5:49:23 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Joyful Victory, Alseera, Inglorious, Check Your Soul
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Mother Goose, The Queen’s Plate
Where: Belmont Park, Woodbine
When: Saturday, June 25th

Several of the top 3YO fillies in training, including the red-hot Salty Strike, Fantasy Stakes winner and Kentucky Oaks favorite Joyful Victory, and Black-Eyed Susan runner-up Buster’s Ready, will contest the 55th Running of the Grade 1 Mother Goose this Saturday at Belmont Park. On Sunday, 17 of Canada’s best sophomores, led by Plate Trial winner Check Your Soul and Woodbine Oaks victress Inglorious, will line up in the $1,000,000 Queen’s Plate at Woodbine. Are there any surprises in store? We’ll see…

Joyful Victory (9-5 morning line) is the most likely winner of The Mother Goose, but there are questions. First, were those runaway victories in The Honeybee and The Fantasy at Oaklawn Park a classic example of a horse-for-the-course vs. modest competition? Second, her sole effort at Belmont Park resulted in the lowest Beyer Speed Figure (71) of her six-race career, so it’s not certain that she likes the surface. Third, she was favored in The Kentucky Oaks, but failed to hit the board. Granted, she didn’t get the best of trips that day, so maybe that race can be forgiven. I wouldn’t consider betting her to win if her odds drop below 8-5.

Salty Strike is a filly on the improve, but you’ll note she has yet to race at “Big Sandy” and she was no match for Joyful Victory in The Honeybee. Buster’s Ready jumped up big time in The Black-Eyed Susan, and looks like a horse that might regress off that effort. This will be her first try at Belmont in the afternoon, although she has been based here for some time and has turned in some nice moves in the A.M. The most intriguing filly in this bunch is the lightly-raced Alseera. She’s exceptionally well-bred, boasts strong connections, is 2-for-2 at Belmont (including her maiden-breaker last fall going a mile), owns tactical speed, and should have clear sailing on the outside. I’ll take Alseera to win and place at odds of 9-2 or better, and box her in the exacta with Joyful Victory.

Despite the large field of 17 for the 152nd Running of The Queen’s Plate, this race should boil down to the three favorites…Check Your Soul (3-1), the aptly-named Queen’splatekitten (7-2) and the long-striding filly Inglorious (9-2). This trio is a combined 8-for-8 at Woodbine, so something’s got to give. Inglorious was able to overcome a dawdling pace in The Woodbine Oaks, surging to the lead late with a final furlong in a sizzling :11 4/5. She followed that up with a bullet breeze on June 16th and appears set for another strong effort in her first try vs. the boys. It will be five weeks and a day since Queen’splatekitten captured The Marine…plenty of time to recover. He’s been a heavy favorite in both Woodbine starts, and with a trainer/jockey combo like Pletcher/Velazquez, he’s likely to be an underlay in this spot. Check Your Soul has been visually impressive in his last two, and proved he can handle top-notch competition when breaking his maiden on the Keeneland sod. I’ll bet on Check Your Soul to win at odds of 2-1 or better and key him top and bottom in exactas with Inglorious and Queen’splatekitten.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling! 

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