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Online Horse Race Betting - Finding A Live Longshot

Posted by Brian Mulligan on 7/5/2011 3:10:12 PM
online horse race betting

Finding a live long shot in this sport is not easy but hard-working online horseracing enthusiasts sometimes have to look to the past to improve in the future.

Thirty, forty, or fifty dollar payoffs just don’t fall off trees in this game but with some imagination and with some past research, players can try to decipher how these prices occur and how they may occur in coming months.

Take for instance the 6th race at Churchill Downs this past Saturday.

A short field of 7 went to the post in the $10,000 mile claimer at a mile and by its own conditions, there were no monsters in the lineup. Favoritism at 6-5 went to Thunder Lovin. The colt had two previous races this year but had given up a clear 3-length lead last time after setting very moderate :49 and 1:14 3/5 splits to finally lose by three quarters of a length.

He really didn’t figure to get the same kind of a trip Saturday as there were three sprinters stretching out in the field and another that was adding blinkers for this first time.

As it turned out, the newly blinkered runner Royal Grand responded to the equipment change and despite going a very legit :46.91 and 1:12.40 early, kept his cool in the lane to prevail by a length to pay $33 flat and key a near $1,400 superfecta.

How was it possible for sports betting players to come up with this horse?

Well, it’s not clearly visible but there were clues that suggested that this runner could improve. First and obviously, the blinkers gave him a chance to be more focused and to have his mind on business.

The runner was dropping from $20,000 claiming land and he had a right to enjoy the distance of 8 furlongs as his sire won 50% of his 20 starts, was a Grade 1 winner going long, and earned over $1.6 million.

His dam was only one for 14 but she was stakes placed and earned over $150,000. The lone sibling to race was only a maiden winner - and it came in a sprint. Still, the way that runner had extended late going from a 4-length lead to a 7-length winner suggested stamina was in the blood. Lastly, but still very important, the fact that Royal Grand was coming out of a live race was important to know. The sixth and seventh finishers of that debut race both came back to win in tougher spots than Royal Grand was entered in.

Sixth finisher Gitto won in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Churchill and the 7th finisher Hey Drew shipped to Indiana and won a maiden $15,000 seller.

Finally, the novice trainer of Royal Grand had been to the rodeo before, although she is new to training. She formerly was an exercise rider at Churchill and has ridden some quality horses in her career such as Ashland Stakes winner Bushfire. She also worked for the very successful horseman Eddie Kenneally.

To be successful when you bet horses, understand that those around the track know that exercise riders are invaluable and often bring back information to the trainer that only a rider would be able to ascertain. All of this information was available before Saturday, but without hard work and the ability to dig for facts, this evidence was not easily attained.

Sure, this is just one race and one isolated sports bet, but the lesson for all is that we all can become better handicappers – it just takes hard work.

Good luck.



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