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Pace the Key for Black Hills, Presious Passion in Sunshine Millions

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 1/28/2011 5:09:19 PM
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – First Dude, Black Hills, Birdrun, Jeranimo, Caracortado, Presious Passion
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Sunshine Millions Classic, The Sunshine Millions Turf
  • Where: Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita
  • When: Saturday, January 29th

In could be bombs away in Saturday’s Sunshine Millions featured events…The Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park and The Sunshine Millions Turf at Santa Anita. Much will depend on the early pace in each race, and whether or not the speed horses knock heads. Let’s break down each race and make a case for a pair of live long shots.

In The Sunshine Millions Classic, I would expect #1-First Dude, #3-Tackleberry and

#5-Birdrun

to eyeball one another in the early going. Even if one or more of those contestants settles into a pressing/stalking trip, the expected fast fractions could take their toll on all of them in the late stages. First Dude and Birdrun have obvious merits, but their prices are likely to be unattractive. The obvious beneficiaries of a speed duel are #2-Duke of Mischief and #8-Dry Martini. Both are classy and both have cracked 100 on the Beyer scale over the Gulfstream Park main oval. However, I’m looking to score with #4-Black Hills (morning line 12-1).

Black Hills ships in from the New Mexico circuit, and will be overlooked in the betting for that reason alone. He hails from a sharp barn, however, and the trainer/jockey combo (Hone/Hernandez) has clicked at a 28% win rate with a healthy ROI of $2.13. Black Hills is a 5-time stakes winner, his Beyers stack up (97, 100, 98 in 3 of his last 4 starts), he’s 3-for-3 at the distance, can carry the weight, and should enjoy a perfect, ground saving trip with the three starters to his inside beating him to the first turn. Look for this guy to make a big late run to get the money at odds of 10-1 or better. I’ll bet on #4-Black Hills across the board.

The Sunshine Millions Turf is a bit of a different story, as there’s a chance that confirmed front-runner #8-Presious Passion will have things his own way on the lead. While 1 1/8th miles isn’t his best distance, he has shown a fondness for the firm Santa Anita sod (3-1-2-0; $820,000 in earnings; 105 Beyer), and is reportedly back on his game. In his January 9th work at Gulfstream Park, the exercise rider had trouble pulling him up, as he just kept going and going. I doubt that his connections would ship him cross country unless all systems were ‘Go’. Interestingly, jockey Mike Smith takes over for regular rider Elvis Trujillo…the Hall of Famer knows a thing or two about getting a horse to relax on the lead. #3-Jeranimo, #5-Caracortado, and #7-The Usual Q. T. are all nice horses, but I’m looking for Presious Passion to pull another ‘wire job’ at inflated odds of 5-1 or higher.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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