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An Early Look At The “Run For The Black-Eyed Susans”

Posted by Marco Sussman on 5/9/2013 7:38:28 PM

One of the top sports betting favorites at the Kentucky Derby, Orb, actually made it all the way through to Churchill Downs and overcame sloppy track conditions to capture the first leg of the Triple Crown. Many are tipping Orb to go ahead and become the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to win the Triple Crown, but first he has to win the Preakness Stakes, the shortest of the three races.

What: Horse Betting
When: Saturday, May 18th, post time TBA
Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, MD

Probables (as of Wednesday, May 8th)

Departing didn’t take part in the Kentucky Derby despite winning four of his first five starts, but trainer Albert M. Stall Jr. must have thought this colt wasn’t ready for the big time. His best win so far is the Grade-3 Illinois Derby, which came in his last start, and Departing did come in behind Kentucky Derby participants Revolutionary and Mylute in the Grade-2 Louisiana Derby, so that is encouraging.

Goldencents was one of the biggest disappointments at Churchill Downs, finishing 17th in the Kentucky Derby. Doug O’Neill steered I’ll Have Another to a near-Triple Crown in 2012, including a victory in the Preakness, but the magic was gone last Saturday and this horse will need a much better performance in less than two weeks.

Orb stole the show with a strong closing kick in the Kentucky Derby, and he is a well-balanced horse that stayed with the pack until the end, when he ran away with the “Run for the Roses”. It was the fifth straight win for Orb, even though trainer Claude McGaughey went back to Joel Rosario after two races with John Velazquez in the saddle. It doesn’t seem to matter who is on Orb’s back.

Oxbow came in sixth in Louisville and he has now finished between fourth and sixth in three of his last four starts. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won five Preakness races, but none since 1999 and he may need to decide on a jockey; Oxbow has had seven jockeys in 10 career starts.

Titletown Five is another Lukas offering, but he hasn’t been good in graded-takes events, following up a ninth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby with a fourth in the Grade-3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs. It also took this horse four tries to break his maiden.

On the other hand, another Lukas-trained thoroughbred, Will Take Charge finished eighth in the
Kentucky Derby after winning the Grade-2 Rebel Stakes. This is a very inconsistent horse and you never know what you’re going to get out of Will Take Charge, which is scary for horse betting players.

Possibles (as of Wednesday, May 8th)

Govenor Charlie is another horse that sat out the Kentucky Derby, but he has a five-time Preakness-winning trainer in Bob Baffert and he did win the Grade-3 Sunland Derby. Can he take the next step in his evolution? Only time will tell when he gets to Pimlico.

Itsmyluckyday didn’t deal with the rain very well at Churchill Downs, finishing 15th in the Kentucky Derby. There were high hopes for him after a win in the Grade-3 Holy Bull Stakes and a second behind Orb at the Grade-1 Florida Derby, but he definitely didn’t run his best race last weekend and needs to be much better in Baltimore.

Mylute came in fifth in the Kentucky Derby and this is a horse that never stops battling, even though he may not have the pure speed of some other thoroughbreds. He never gives up and fought through the slop to put in a respectable finish in Louisville, and you need that sometimes in horse racing.

Normandy Invasion finished one spot ahead of Mylute and some are ready to put him among the favorites at Pimlico because of his solid performances; a pair of fifth-place results are his worst in six career starts. Keep a close eye on this horse ahead of the Preakness.

Street Spice could be a longshot after sitting out the Kentucky Derby and he came in fifth at the Illinois Derby; in fact, this horse hasn’t broken his maiden yet and has finished fifth or worse in three of his four starts. This may be a horse to stay away from, if Street Spice even makes it to Pimlico.

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