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Rail Trip Ready to Roll in Whitney

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 8/5/2011 4:43:21 PM
whitney horsebetting
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Flat Out, Morning Line, Giant Oak, Tizway, Rail Trip
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Whitney Invitational Handicap
  • Where: Saratoga
  • When: Saturday, August 6th
    • Will the leader of the handicap division please stand up! There have been some dominant performances by older horses in 2011, but no dominant performer. Contention runs deep in the 84th Running of The Whitney Invitational Handicap at Saratoga. The winner may just stamp himself as the top older horse in training. Let’s take a look at each of the Whitney contestants...the winner is almost certain to pay double digits:

      #1-Flat Out (4-1): As the saying goes…”He ran his eyeballs out” in The Suburban, and reports are he’s training even better for The Whitney. Could be this guy is finally putting it all together after overcoming physical setbacks earlier in his career. Still, that last outing was the only time he topped 100 on the Beyer scale, and two turns at “The Spa” is a different ballgame than one turn at “The Beautiful B”. His 4-1 morning line odds seem a bit low too. Big threat, but value may not be there.

      #2-Friend Or Foe (8-1): Trainer John Kimmel says he wouldn’t trade places with anybody in here…but don’t they all say that? That was a real nice horse he beat last time, with both coming off layoffs. A move forward wouldn’t come as a shock…and that would put this NY-bred colt right in the mix. The main concern is that he’s won all four of his Belmont starts, but failed to hit the board in a pair of outings at The Spa. Mixed signals.

      #3-Morning Line (10-1): Zito trainee is a hard-hitting, versatile sort, winning the Grade 1 Carter at seven furlongs, as well as The Pennsylvania Derby at 1 1/8th miles. His local record is 2-1-1-0, and at the Whitney distance he’s 4-2-2-0. The main knock is that he has never earned a big speed figure, topping out at 103. That won’t cut it against this bunch.

      #4-Giant Oak (5-1): The field’s only multiple-Grade 1 winner (albeit one was by DQ) doesn’t win enough to suit my taste. Like Morning Line, his top Beyer (105) falls short of what it will take to win this.

      #5-Tizway (6-1): Like Flat Out, this guy “freaked” in his most recent start, earning a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Grade 1 Met Mile. He’s also totally healthy for the first time in a long while. Note, however, that his last four wins, dating back more than two years, came at one-turn distances of a mile or less. Also, his record at the Whitney distance (8-1-0-2) doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.

      #6-Mission Impazible (6-1): I needed him to cap off a juicy Pick-4 at Churchill Downs last out…alas, he fell a neck short of since-retired Pool Play. That means he’ll probably win this…and I won’t have him. He’s another whose speed figures (lifetime best of 102) just don’t measure up.

      #7-Rail Trip (12-1): You read it here first…this guy will capture The Whitney and go on to win The Breeders’ Cup Classic and Horse of the Year title. OK…I admit this is a rather outrageous prediction, given the fickle nature of horse racing. I’ll stick to my guns, though, because I believe this 6YO gelding is the best older horse in training. He’s finally over his foot issues, and has been training lights out in the peace and quiet of “The Big A”. Trainer Rick Dutrow knows plenty about how to handle a top horse (Big Brown ring any bells?), and he’s got one here. Rail Trip was the best in the West on artificial surfaces, and is ready for a breakout performance in his third start on dirt (and second with the crafty Ramon Dominguez in the irons). Cash in on him now at 8-1 or better…next time he’ll be 4-5! The Pick.

      #8-Headache (20-1): He (along with Rodman) is the longest shot in the field, and the only horse on a winning streak (two-in-a-row). His Beyers are too low (101) to take him seriously here, but keep an eye out for him on Breeders’ Cup weekend…he can run all day and likes Churchill Downs.

      #9-Rodman (20-1): He’s 2-for-2 at Saratoga, and gave a good account of himself with a placing in The Met Mile. Speaking of The Met Mile…that’s what this guy wants to do…a one-turn mile. Pass.

      #10-Apart (6-1): Hails from the connections of 2010 Horse of the Year Blame….all I can say is…”I knew Blame. Blame was a friend of mine…and you sir, are no Blame.”

      #11-Duke of Mischief (8-1): The field’s leading money earner ($1.7 MM) has been expertly managed, picking up Grade 2 and Grade 3 trophies all over the place. I’m not sold on him vs. Grade 1 competition, however. Perhaps that local bullet breeze points him out as a horse to use underneath in the exotics.

      Those are my horse racing betting tips for The Whitney Invitational Handicap on Saturday. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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