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Runflatout Heads San Felipe Scramble

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 3/11/2011 4:10:24 PM
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Uncle Mo, Brethren, Runflatout
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Timely Writer, The Tampa Bay Derby, The San Felipe
  • Where: Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Santa Anita
  • When: Saturday, March 12th
  • 3YO stablemates Uncle Mo and Brethren appear ready to dominate their competition in The Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park and The Tampa Bay Derby, respectively. The San Felipe, on the other hand, is a mad scramble. Let’s try to unlock the mysteries of this 10-horse brain teaser.

    #1-Albergatti: Like several in here, he has yet to go two turns. He’s bred to like the added distance, but you never know ‘til they try it. He couldn’t hold off Da Ruler in his career bow, but turned in a game effort to break his maiden next out in fast time. Gomez sticks, which is certainly a positive signal. Wouldn’t be a shocker.

    #2-Runflatout: Unlike the inside horse, this guy blew away the competition first time out, earned a lofty Beyer Speed Figure (98), and did it the right way, relaxing early. Sadler loves the way this horse is training, and he gives every indication he’ll relish two turns. With major question marks surrounding the rest of the field, I’ll take my chances with the most talented horse – Runflatout to win at odds of 5-2 or better.

    #3-Surrey Star: Turned in an even effort off a nearly-3-month break, and should move forward in his second dirt start. However, Premier Pegasus, to his outside, beat him last out and should also improve in his second start as a 3YO. Pass.

    #4-Awesome Patriot: On a positive note, he’s beaten winners going two turns and Bejarano sticks. Unfortunately, his Beyers don’t quite stack up, and he’s another who couldn’t handle ‘Pegasus. Looking elsewhere.

    #5-Comma to the Top: Shares high weight (123 lbs.) with fellow Grade 1 winner Jaycito, and will be making his first start on dirt. That six-furlong breeze (1:13 4/5) last Sunday on the Santa Anita main track doesn’t provide much of a clue as to how he’ll handle the surface switch. He raced like a short horse last out, and could rebound if he handles the dirt. Mixed signals.

    #6-Premier Pegasus: Low-profile connections assure a square price on this colt. His bullet 5-furlong work a week ago signals a move forward, and the hood comes off for the first time. Interesting fringe player.

    #7-Bench Points: This guy’s a perfect 4-for-4…all sprints. Move into open company last out was no problem, but he’ll need to continue the Beyer progression to make an impact.

    #8-Jakesam: Hollendorfer charge has tackled some pretty tough company along the way, but didn’t crack 90 on the Beyer scale until his seventh start. He’s also trying dirt for the first time. I’m wondering if he’ll regress in this spot.

    #9-Jaycito: Blew the turn in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which was his first start on dirt. After that he switched barns from Mitchell to Baffert. This will be his first start in more than four months and the shades come off…taking a wait-and-see attitude with the likely favorite (7-2 morning line).

    #10-Quail Hill: Grabbed show money at 68-1 in The Robert B. Lewis, but didn’t earn much of a speed fig (84). Appears overmatched.

    Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!



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