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Super Saver Set for Encore in Baltimore

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 5/14/2010 4:37:50 PM
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Super Saver; Lookin At Lucky; Paddy O’Prado; Caracortado/li>
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Preakness
  • Where: Pimlico
  • When: Saturday, May 15th

As The Preakness draws near, the prevailing view is that Super Saver was lucky to win The Kentucky Derby, while Ice Box and Lookin At Lucky suffered through nightmare trips. Ice Box will bide his time and shoot for Belmont Stakes glory, but Lookin At Lucky is back for another stab at the Derby winner. Let’s look at the major players in tomorrow’s Preakness.

Two weeks ago on this site I touted Super Saver to win The Kentucky Derby, and the price (8-1) was right that day. A little Derby futures action at 20-1 didn’t hurt either. Granted, all the stars aligned for this colt on Derby Day, but it would be a mistake to downplay his accomplishment as well as his Preakness prospects. He owns the field’s top Beyer Speed Figure (104), came out of the Derby in great shape, continues to thrive, has shown he can win on a fast track (which is likely tomorrow), should appreciate the slight cutback in distance, and has a tractability edge over his main rival, Lookin At Lucky. He may end up making 5-2 look like a bargain after the Preakness results are in. Once again…THE PICK.

Many times when a horse has an excuse for losing, the betting public over-compensates next time out, making that horse an underlay. I believe that will be the case with Lookin At Lucky in The Preakness. To make matters even more dicey, Lookin At Lucky will receive the services of a new, and far less experienced rider, in Martin Garcia. It’s also worth noting that trainer Bob Baffert was non-committal about Lookin At Lucky running in the Preakness until a week or so before the race. Yes, he’s a very accomplished, hard-trying animal, but he could end up playing Alydar/Easy Goer to Super Saver’s Affirmed/Sunday Silence. Use underneath in the chalk exacta.

Paddy O’Prado gave a good account of himself to get third in the Derby, although jockey Kent Desormeaux was criticized for not persevering with his mount in the stretch, possibly costing him the place spot. The main question with Paddy O’Prado is whether he’ll be as effective on a fast track. I’ll try to beat him with newcomer Caracortado (scar face in Spanish), who has been training up a storm on the West Coast since his eventful trip in The Santa Anita Derby. I also like the fact that Caracortado has five wins on his resume, compared to just one for ‘Paddy (that coming on grass). I’ll use both to round out the Preakness trifecta.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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