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Take Charge Indy and Creative Cause Poised for Victory

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 3/9/2012 4:28:47 PM

Who: Thoroughbreds – Take Charge Indy, Creative Cause
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Tampa Bay Derby, The San Felipe
Where: Tampa Bay Downs, Santa Anita
When: Saturday, March 10th

The Kentucky Derby picture will come more into focus this Saturday after the results of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade 2 San Felipe are in the books. Although 3YO’s can improve by leaps and bounds at this time of year, with relative unknowns often capturing the spotlight, it looks to me like a couple of familiar faces will be tough to beat. Let’s take a closer look at the Tampa Bay Derby and the San Felipe below.

The Tampa Bay Derby has attracted an abundance of speed and a large field, so a battle-tested stalker like Take Charge Indy will have some distinct advantages. His strong second-place finish behind the highly-regarded El Padrino last out at Gulfstream Park is proof that this colt has taken a step forward from his promising juvenile campaign. Calvin Borel will be back aboard on Saturday, having gotten familiar with his mount last time. ‘Indy is training super and gets in relatively light at 116 pounds. The Sam F. Davis, which served as a prep for Saturday’s race, wasn’t all that fast, so the new shooters may have a class edge. Unbeaten (2-for-2) morning-line favorite Spring Hill Farm, from the Todd Pletcher barn, figures to have company on the front end, with the speedy Cajun Charlie shipping in from Louisiana. I’m looking for #10-Take Charge Indy (5-2), with a well-timed move from Borel, to sweep past the front-runners in mid-stretch and win with something left. I’ll bet him to win at odds of 9-5 or better.

The San Felipe is filled with question marks and sub-plots. How will the talented Bodemeister handle the step-up in class after demolishing maidens in his two-turn bow last out? What happened to the highly-accomplished Liaison in the Robert B. Lewis? He was going nowhere before clipping heels and losing his rider. Rousing Sermon didn’t fire in the Lewis either…seemingly missing the board for the first time in his career, only to be placed third via DQ. Is the regally-bred Empire Way ready to break through, or will he be better later in the year? I like Empire Way’s more seasoned stablemate, Creative Cause. In what is shaping up as a super key race, Creative Cause’s close-up third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile gets more impressive with the passage of time, when you consider the subsequent exploits of Union Rags, Hansen, Alpha, and others. Creative Cause had a useful tuneup in the 7-furlong San Vicente, and will be ready to roll on the stretch-out. He’s been training with gusto, loves the track, and will have targets to shoot at, with the likes of Bodemeister, American Act, Midnight Transfer and Tiz Point knocking heads early. I’ll bet on #7-Creative Cause (5-2) to win at odds of 8-5 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!  



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