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Trio of Juicy Stakes Matchups on Saturday

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 12/9/2011 5:19:04 PM
december horse betting

Who: Thoroughbreds – Pomeroys Pistol, Third Chance, Populist Politics, Star Guitar, Weemissfrankie, Charm the Maker
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Sugar Swirl, The Louisiana Champions Day Classic, The Hollywood Starlet
Where: Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, Hollywood Park
When: Saturday, December 10th

Can the red-hot Third Chance knock off Pomeroys Pistol in The Sugar Swirl (Grade 3) at Gulfstream Park? Can up-and-coming 3YO Populist Politics defeat Louisiana-bred kingpin Star Guitar in The Louisiana Champions Day Classic at Fair Grounds? Can the regally-bred Charm the Maker turn the tables on Weemissfrankie in The Hollywood Starlet (Grade 1) at Hollywood Park? Let’s take a closer look at these intriguing matchups.

In The Sugar Swirl, earnings leader Pomeroys Pistol ($510,178) figures to go favored. She rarely runs a bad one, and exits a solid fourth-place effort in The Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. She’s also proven at Gulfstream Park, with a record of 3-1-1-1 in a trio of graded stakes early in the year. However, her lifetime-best Beyer Speed Figure of 98 is just a point better than that of the red-hot Third Chance (97), who’s on a four-race win streak (by a combined 29 lengths). True, the Hawthorne-to-Gulfstream move didn’t work for this filly in January, but she’s a much-improved horse since then. I like her outside post as well…it gives regular rider Jozbin Santana some options. Note that the trainer/jockey combo is winning at an astonishing 40% clip, with an ROI of $2.69 (for each $2.00 bet). I’ll bet on the hot horse/connections to win at odds of 5-2 or better.

Populist Politics is a very nice 3YO. He made a big move before fading late to finish third in the Grade 2 Super Derby, and demolished older La-breds last out in The Mr. Sulu Stakes locally. His career-best Beyer (94) is just two points shy of Star Guitar’s top 2011 fig (96). That bullet breeze (:47 4/5…fastest of 79 at the distance) a week ago wasn’t too shabby either. Still, in Star Guitar, you’re dealing with one of the all-time great La-breds. He’s won 20-of-26 lifetime, for earnings of more than $1.4 MM, and he’s 8-of-10 lifetime at Fair Grounds. Defending champ Star Guitar is following the same schedule as last year, but note that he enters this affair in even better form, shooting for his 7th straight authoritative win. I’ll bet a straight 6-4 exacta…#6-Star Guitar over #4-Populist Politics.

Weemissfrankie had plenty of support in The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, finishing third in a 14-horse field at odds of 5-1. Prior to her trip east, she defeated Charm the Maker by a length in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita. However, I’m leaning toward the beautifully-bred Charm the Maker to turn the tables on her main rival. Weemissfrankie had an experience edge in The Oak Leaf, having already won a Grade 1, while Charm the Maker was exiting a debut maiden score. This time, Charm the Maker owns a two-turn stakes win over the track, while Weemissfrankie is making her Hollywood Park bow after a potentially draining trip to Churchill Downs. Charm the Maker’s got a bit more tactical speed as well, so she should get the jump on ‘Frankie. I’ll bet on Charm the Maker to win at odds of 3-2 or better.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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