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Up Up and Away with Sway Away

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 3/18/2011 6:01:26 PM
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Archarcharch, J P’s Gusto, The Factor, Sway Away, Elite Alex
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Rebel
  • Where: Oaklawn Park
  • When: Saturday, March 19th

The Triple Crown trail passes through Oaklawn Park this Saturday, with the 51st Running of The Rebel Stakes (Grade 2). Like last weekend’s San Felipe at Santa Anita, The Rebel presents us with a daunting handicapping challenge. The good news is that picking the winner will pay handsomely. Let’s break down the Rebel field.
#1-Archarcharch: Jumped up to win The Southwest at 18-1 and picks up an extra five pounds for his trouble. He owned a recency edge on J P’s Gusto in that race at equal weights…now he’s spotting that rival five pounds. Not this time around.
#2-Alternation: Beautifully-bred colt has moved through his conditions without a hitch. He’s a perfect three-for-three going two turns, and the Beyers have risen with every start. Still, he hasn’t run that fast, so another forward move will be necessary to contend here. The recent bullet works suggest that will happen. Very dangerous at a price (morning line 12-1).
#3-Dreaminofthewin: He’ll still be dreamin’ after this one.
#4-Picko’s Pride: Not sure why this colt was so far back in The Southwest Stakes after showing speed in his first three starts. He has the look of a horse that might be able to suck up for fourth (rounding out the super) if the race falls apart.
#5-J P’s Gusto: The field’s leading money earner ($577K) probably needed his last and got a feel for the track in the process. Dominguez is back after learning something about his mount in that race. This colt hit 92 on the Beyer scale three times as a juvenile (all on synthetic)… I’m wondering if his upside on dirt (Beyers of 81, 87) is limited. I’ll pass on what will probably be an underlaid price (morning line 5-1).
#6-The Factor: He’s very fast…and bred to handle two turns. However, after watching Runflatout fold his tent in the San Felipe, I’m going to pass on this guy as the probable favorite (morning line 2-1).
#7-Caleb’s Posse: This colt came crashing back to earth in The Southwest after winning The Smarty Jones going away. Co-highweight (122 lbs.) has his work cut out here.
#8-Saratoga Red: Lukas is never afraid to take a shot with an apparently overmatched runner. ‘Red spots the field a ton of experience.
#9-Sway Away: I know…like The Factor, this sway backed horse has yet to try two turns. However, he was closing like a freight train last out when losing by less than a length to The Factor in The San Vicente, and he looks/acts like a true stayer. Sway Away gets a favorable two-pound weight shift from The Factor, and Gomez sticks. That seven-furlong work last Saturday in 1:23 3/5 looks mighty appealing too. I’ll bet Sway Away to win at odds of 5-2 or better and key Alternation underneath in exactas and tri’s.
#10-Elite Alex: Ritchey trainee has been a ‘wise guy’ horse this spring, and may pose a threat in The Arkansas Derby at the longer distance of 1 1/8 miles. For now, I’m still viewing him as more of a plodding type.
#11-Glint: His connections picked a pretty tough spot to try two turns. Seems up against it.
#12-Bluegrass Jam: Beyers say he’s out of his league.
#13-J W Blue: Got the best of Bluegrass Jam in late January, but will have to improve by leaps and bounds to contend here.
Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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