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How To Bet Machida Bader – Machida Puts Himself In Position For Another Title Shot

Posted by Jack “The Hammer” Howard on 8/1/2012 6:05:56 PM

Online betting players that follow the UFC have had a tough time keeping track of the stakes for the fourth UFC on Fox card on Saturday. First, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Brandon Vera were fighting for a shot at light-heavyweight champion Jon Jones or Dan Henderson (who will meet in September), but now president Dana White has decided that the match between Lyoto Machida and Ryan Bader will also factor in the decision on who will fight for the title next. Machida is a former champion that has been uneven in his last few matches, but he’ll find the fire to defeat Bader.

What: UFC Betting
When: Saturday, August 4th, 9:00 PM ET
Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
Pick: Lyoto Machida -315

Why Bet On Lyoto Machida (17-3)

If it’s any consolation to the former champion, Machida gave Jon Jones all he could handle and more in losing to the champ in December in Toronto as his elusive counterattacking style confused Jones, and Machida even rushed Jones and got inside the champion’s reach, but he was taken down and then cut wide open with an elbow before being choked out standing up with a guillotine. It was a slight change from the norm for Machida, who is used to staying on the outside and picking apart his opponent, but with Jones’ long reach, that would have been a terrible plan. Machida’s karate is based on taking unique angles to strike your opponent, and he is aided by strong takedown defense as he has stuffed 83% of his opponent’s takedowns. Jones was really the first to take Machida to the ground and keep him there, which will be a blueprint for Machida’s opponent on Saturday.

Machida’s last five matches have been a mixed bag: a win over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua to keep his belt that he didn’t deserve, then he was blasted by Rua in the rematch to lose the title. Then Machida dropped a split decision to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson that he should have won, followed by the “Knockout of the Year”, a front kick which ended Randy Couture’s career and finally, the loss to Jones. It’s tough to put a finger on the “Dragon” right now, so it’ll be interesting to see which Machida shows up.

Why Bet On Ryan Bader (14-2)

Bader also hit a snag against Jones, who then went on to be awarded a shot at Rua for the title, which he would obviously take, and a loss against Jones isn’t bad at all. However, getting submitted by a well-past-his-prime Tito Ortiz last July really made a lot of people question whether Bader had the chops to compete at the highest level in the 205-pound division. Bader took some time off to get himself back together and then knocked out Jason Brilz in the first round before dominating Jackson in Japan in February. He used a very smart plan of utilizing his wrestling because Bader knew he wasn’t going to be able to stand up with Jackson, who is now simply a one-knockout punch kind of fighter. While Bader has improved his striking through boxing, he still isn’t a great striker and instead will fall back on his boxing.

Bader isn’t a can by any means, and UFC betting sharps will note that he has a win over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Little Nog) under his belt. Even wins over Keith Jardine and Jackson aren’t that impressive and there are many that think Bader doesn’t deserve to being in position for a title shot at all, so he has a lot on the line against a dangerous opponent in Machida. He probably earned a little respect from White for taking the Jackson fight even though his opponent came in overweight, and then he smothered Jackson for the victory. Bader is still young by MMA standards and could even use a little more experience, and this is now the biggest fight of his career.

How It Will Play Out

UFC betting odds have Machida as a heavy favorite at -315, while Bader is rated at +265 in a match that is massive now. White said that the winner of either co-main event on Saturday not only has to win, but they have to do it with style; this is a direct response to the terrible UFC 149 card that was held in Calgary. This should also draw in a few more viewers to Saturday’s card on Fox.

Bader has to get this to the ground because he can’t compete with Machida’s striking, while Machida would like to show that he is adept on the ground if it goes there, although he’d like to keep it standing. This will be a clash of wills, and you have to go with the guy who has been near the top before. Go with Lyoto Machida in your sports betting picks.

UFC on Fox 4 Betting Pick: Lyoto Machida



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