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UFC 100 Odds - Mir vs Lesnar toplines fight card of the century

Posted by Jack "The Hammer" Howard on 4/25/2012 10:12:16 AM

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UFC 101 oddsThe UFC 101 odds up on the betting card aren’t as exciting as the recent UFC 100 but we’ll still have some stars. B.J. Penn and Anderson Silva are two of the most popular fighters among online betting handicappers in the UFC and both will be on the main card on August 8th.

UFC 101 Odds: Silva to have an easy time with Griffin

  • Silva a heavy favorite over Griffin
  • Penn comes back down to defend lightweight crown against Florian
  • Hendricks will be making UFC debut after successful WEC stint

Penn vs Florian odds
Silva vs Griffin odds
Sadollah vs Hendricks odds
Grove vs Almeida odds
Neer vs Pellegrino odds
Nelson vs Riley odds
Howard vs McCrory odds
Leites vs Sakara odds
Cramer vs Riddle odds
Sotiropoulos vs Roop odds
Lennox vs Villefort odds

Penn vs Florian odds

B.J. Penn (13-5)
The man known as “The Prodigy” is fighting for the first time since moving up to welterweight to try and regain the title from Georges St. Pierre at UFC 94. Penn accused GSP of greasing his shoulders so Penn couldn’t get a good grip with his legs, but this takes away from the fact that Penn just got beaten for the second time by a better fighter, and he was out of his comfort zone, which is 155 pounds. Penn is a great grappler, but his striking is underrated, and his all-around skills are the reason why he’s the favorite in your offshore sportsbook.

Kenny Florian (11-3)
Florian has won his last six fights, four of which came by submission. Florian defeated former champion Joe Stevenson with a rear-naked choke at UFC 91 to become the No.1 contender for the lightweight crown. This is his second shot at the belt, as he lost to Sean Sherk back at UFC 64, but he hasn’t lost since. Florian has admitted that he looks up to Penn, who is one of the top lightweights in the world, but he also realizes that to be the best, you have to be the best.

What Will Happen: UFC 101 odds have Penn as a -220 favorite in this main event, and this will be a matchup featuring two fighters who are well versed in the art of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The difference could be in their strikes, as Penn has a boxing background to go with his excellent takedowns, while Florian is known to have some of the sharpest elbows in all of MMA once he gets his opponents down to the ground. We won’t see Penn get manhandled as he did in the GSP fight, and you could tell that gaining the weight to move up had an effect on his conditioning. He’ll be eager to show that the GSP fight was an anomaly and that he is still the lightweight king of the UFC. This could be Florian’s last chance at the crown, but Penn’s well-rounded game will be just too much.

UFC betting pick: B.J. Penn

Silva vs Griffin odds

Forrest Griffin (16-5)
Forrest Griffin has fought some decent competition in his MMA career, but the sportsbook odds makers obviously aren’t buying into him too much. Griffin - the winner of the first Ultimate Fighter reality show - has had a tough time fighting top-notch opponents recently, and there is some question as to whether he can handle Silva. UFC 101 betting handicappers should note that Griffin has lost to Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine and Tito Ortiz, while his wins came against Quinton Jackson, Mauricio Rua and Hector Ramirez. On paper, the win against Jackson looks credible but it was highly controversial, which really thins out the amount of credible wins Griffin has on his resume.

Anderson Silva (24-4)
The UFC 101 odds have Anderson Silva as a huge favorite over Forrest Griffin, and it’s plain to see why. Silva is arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and nobody has come close to damaging him in a long time. Not only is Silva tough to hit, he is slippery and dangerous through and through. Standing up, he’s lighting quick with his strikes. On the mat, he’s hard to grip and control. UFC 101 betting sharps will have to take into account that Silva is moving up to light heavyweight for this fight against Griffin, but as long as the weight isn’t an issue, UFC betting fans should see Silva should dominate this fight from start to finish.

What Will Happen: Griffin will come out forcing the fight on Silva, and he’ll regret it shortly after. After getting pummeled in the first round and take a couple of big hits, Silva will end it with a submission in round two.

UFC betting pick: Silva

Sadollah vs Hendricks odds

Amir Sadollah (1-0)
Sadollah, a 28-year-old from Richmond but fighting out of Las Vegas, defeated C.B. Dolloway with a first-round armbar in the finale of the “Ultimate Fighter 7” back in June of last year. However, his first post-reality show fight has been postponed twice - first at UFC 91 when he had a leg infection before his fight with Nick Catone, and second when the rematch scheduled for UFC Fight Night 17 was postponed because of a broken clavicle. Sadollah has a varied background in sambo, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai.

Johny Hendricks (5-0)
This will be the UFC debut for Hendricks, a 25-year-old from Oklahoma who also fights out of Las Vegas, and he was a former collegiate wrestling champion and four-time All-American at Oklahoma University. Hendricks has learned to incorporate striking with his wrestling ability, as three of his five wins have come by knockout. He had to move to the UFC as the WEC eliminated his weight class, so now he’s coming to test his ability in the welterweight class of MMA’s largest company.

What Will Happen: Offshore sportsbook odds have this one as a dead heat, as both fighters are rated at -115. It’s difficult to handicap this match as many people haven’t seen Hendricks, and are only familiar with Sadollah through the “Ultimate Fighter” show. Sadollah will be eager to get in the octagon after a series of injuries, but that may also cause him to make a mistake, and if Hendricks can get him on the ground, he’ll be in a world of trouble. Hendricks’ slight experience advantage will give him the edge in a fight that should go the full three rounds.

UFC betting pick: Johny Hendricks

Grove vs Almeida odds

Kendall Grove (12-5)
Grove is a 26-year-old middleweight fighting out of Maui, where he trains with UFC lightweight champion B.J. Penn, who will headline the card. Grove began his MMA journey on the “Ultimate Fighter 3”, where he won the middleweight division while being also schooled by Tito Ortiz, the former UFC light heavyweight champ. Grove has won two fights in a row after dropping a pair consecutively, earning a split decision over Evan Tanner at the finale for the “Ultimate Fighter 7”, and he followed that with a knockout of Jason Day at UFC 96.

Ricardo Almeida (10-3)
Almeida, a 32-year-old who is fighting out of Hamilton, New Jersey, is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and also a kickboxer. Almeida had a seven-match winning streak snapped when he dropped a split decision to Patrick Cote at UFC 86, but he bounced back to win a unanimous decision over Matt Horwich at a UFC: Fight Night event back in April. Almeida is great on the ground, as he’s done well in numerous wrestling competitions, while four of his 10 wins have come via submission. Almeida is never knocked a fighter out, but that hasn’t stopped handicappers from making him the favorite for this bout.

What Will Happen: Almeida has a three-year headstart on Grove when it comes to an MMA career, and offshore sportsbook odds have him as a -180 favorite in this contest. He’ll look to take this fight to the ground and smother Grove with his grappling skills, but Grove is no stranger when it comes to going on the mat, and you have to think that training with Penn has even enhanced his skills on the ground. A win would boost him up the middleweight rankings, and while he is six years younger, Grove has had four more fights than Almeida, which will play a role in this MMA betting upset.

UFC betting pick: Kendall Grove

Neer vs Pellegrino odds

Josh Neer (25-7-1)
Neer, a 26-year-old who is fighting out of Des Moines, is a very well-rounded lightweight with backgrounds in Muay Thai and wrestling. 11 of his wins have come by submission while 10 were via knockout, so he can get it done either way. Three of his losses have come by submission, and two could have gone either way as they were split decisions. Even though he started professionally in 2003, Neer (aka The Dentist) has been very busy, not only fighting in the UFC, but also in Xtreme Kage Kombat. Basically, Neer will fight wherever, whenever, and he’s won four of his last five fights.

Kurt Pellegrino (13-4)
Pellegrino is a 30-year-old Jersey native fighting out of Jupiter, Florida, and he trained with Ricardo Almeida at a Renzo Gracie school of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Pellegrino has won four of his last six fights, and nine of his 13 wins have come via submission, so it’s no secret that Pellegrino will want to go to the ground. But that doesn’t mean he’s not exciting, as his unanimous decision over Thiago Tavares at UFC 88 was voted the No.2 fight of the year in 2008.

What Will Happen: Oddsmakers have Neer as a -200 favorite in this contest, and his biggest weapon will be takedown defense, as Pellegrino, who was also a two-time wrestling finalist in New Jersey, will be aiming to go to the mat. While Pellegrino can submit people, you have to wonder if his ground-and-pound game is good enough to get the better of Neer, who is as tough as they come. Neer’s four-year age difference could also be a factor.

UFC betting pick: Josh Neer

Nelson vs Riley odds

Shane Nelson (12-3)
Entering the UFC 101 odds, lightweight Shane Nelson isn’t known for his power, and that made the stoppage in his first bout with Aaron Riley so shocking. He was awarded a TKO over Riley at UFC 96 in what many MMA betting fans consider one of the worst premature referee stoppages in UFC history. He wants to give Riley another shot and, while Nelson is no slouch, he’s not likely to win by knockout this time. Nelson, a Jiu-Jitsu guy, is more likely to win by submission or decision in the UFC 101 odds. He’s still fairly raw and, aside from the controversial TKO against Riley, hasn’t displayed any real power. However, he trains with Team Penn, so it wouldn’t be a shock if his striking improved entering the UFC 101 odds.

Aaron Riley (27-11)
Riley is the more experience fighter by far, having battled the likes of Chris and Spencer Fisher in his career. While he’s not a knockout artist, he’s flashed finishing ability in the past and has submitted 11 fighters in his career. However, those betting on UFC 101 odds can’t automatically equate experience and success. It seems that Riley has trouble against more seasoned opponents, as he showed when both Lytle and Fisher knocked him out.

What Will Happen: I have to wonder if Nelson’s first win was a fluke. His offensive power is best described as popgun, so I can’t see him hurting Riley again the way Lytle and Fisher did. Bet on the more experienced Riley to win at the sportsbook, especially since he’ll be hungry for revenge.

UFC betting pick: Aaron Riley

Howard vs McCrory odds

Tamdan McCrory (11-2)
“The Barn Cat” is a freak in the welterweight division, fighting at 170 pounds despite standing 6’4”. Naturally, he has a massive reach advantage over his opponents - he can keep them at bay and set up strikes, which he did during a knockout binge early in his career. He can also use his long limbs to control opponents on the ground and set up submissions, as he’s done in the UFC. Entering the UFC 101 odds, McCrory is still a work in progress, as he sometimes leaves himself open to submissions, but he’s not an easy opponent for anyone at welterweight because of the matchup problems his size creates.

John Howard (11-4)
Build-wise, he’s the polar opposite of McCrory, standing just 5’7”, so he’ll have a big reach disadvantage. However, what “Doomsday” Howard lacks in size, he makes up in moxie. The Muay Thai/Jiu Jitsu fighter has shown versatility in his recent fights, mixing in a few knockouts to go with multiple submissions, so he can beat McCrory’s UFC 101 odds in multiple different ways.

What Will Happen: Sportsbook players shouldn’t overthink this fight. At the highest level, great fighters can overcome mismatches (just ask Fedor Emelianenko, a giant killer at heavyweight). However, for raw fighters like these UFC 101 odds undercard guys, size does matter. Howard is nine inches shorter than McCrory, so I don’t’ see how he can reach him or control him on the ground. Bet on McCrory to beat Howard – and finish him.

UFC betting pick: Tamdan McCrory

Leites vs Sakara odds

Thales Leites (14-2)
How the mighty have fallen. Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master Thales Leites had a middleweight title shot against Anderson Silva in April, much to the surprise of many MMA betting fans who didn’t feel he’d earned his way there. Leites played right into his detractors’ hands, lying on the canvas and never engaging Silva in what was perhaps the most infamously boring UFC title fight ever. In just a few months, Leites has gone from the main event to undercard afterthought. However, just as Dana White gave him another shot, so should bettors. For whatever reason, Leites’ head was somewhere else against Silva, but he’s still a world-class Jiu-Jitsu fighter known for his submission ability. His only two losses are against two strong fighters – Silva and Martin Kampmann.

Alessio Sakara (13-7)
The UFC matchmaker did a nice job for these UFC 101 odds. After Leites did nothing against Anderson Silva and Silva refused to play into his hands, the UFC throws Leites into the octagon against the aggressive, all-or-nothing striker Alessio Sakara. Sakara, a boxer, hasn’t fought past the first round in seven straight UFC bouts. He gets knocked out whenever he fights a legit power guy (Chris Leben, Houston Alexander, Drew McFedries) but he has plenty of knockout power of his own. He’s an exciting fighter who always gives his all, which is why Dana White keeps Sakara around even when he gets his clock cleaned.

What Will Happen: Sakara will likely walk forward on Leites and make him work. While the Leites haters will bet on Sakara’s long-shot UFC 101 odds at the sportsbook, hoping to see Leites’ demise, the truth is that Leites fights better when pressed into action. Look for him to weather the storm and pull out a submission.

UFC betting pick: Thales Leites

Cramer vs Riddle odds

Matt Riddle (2-0)
Entering the UFC 101 odds, Matt Riddle is raw, but he’s certainly an intriguing character in UFC betting circles. A former national high-school wrestling champion, he taught himself Jiu-Jitsu by reading BJ Penn’s book. He made a name for himself trash talking on the “Ultimate Fighter” TV show. While he didn’t win, his official UFC debut has been strong. He may not be a finisher, but he’s flashed versatility in the octagon with his wrestling/Jiu-Jitsu hybrid skills. Riddle opened his career with back-to-back unanimous decision victories and will battle a former TUF cast mate at UFC 101.

Dan Cramer (1-0)
Another little-known fighter, Dan Cramer’s career path is similar to Riddle’s, so each fighter’s UFC 101 odds are difficult to forecast. Like Riddle, Cramer was an outstanding high-school athlete who applied his ability to mixed martial arts and excelled as an amateur, going 3-0. He’s a Jiu-Jitsu fighter who trains with American top team and he won his UFC debut via split decision over Matt Arroyo. But Cramer’s already hit some bumps in the road: during “the Ultimate Fighter” he was eliminated via heel-hook submission and he broke his collarbone during a training session later.

What Will Happen: With two fighters so inexperienced, these UFC 101 odds are difficult to handicap when sports betting online. In the end, you should bet on Riddle. He’s more of a natural, he’s made fewer mistakes so far, and his victories were more decisive.

UFC betting pick: Matt Riddle

Sotiropoulos vs Roop odds

George Sotiropoulos (9-2)
After Rob Emerson pulled out of this fight due to a cut requiring stitches, George Sotiropoulos has to feel confident about his UFC 101 odds against replacement fighter George Roop. He’s won three straight fights and six of seven over all; he’s also 2-0 since joining the UFC. The Australian-born Sotiropoulos is a Jiu-Jitsu fighter who gets most of his wins via submission and that will likely be his strategy against Roop.

George Roop (9-4)
Sotiropoulos’ partner in George-on-George crime is George Roop, a relative unknown filling in on very short notice. Roop showed toughness on the “Ultimate Fighter” reality show, winning a fight despite breaking his hand in a training session. He’s a very tall lightweight at 6’1” and he too wins primarily by submission.

What Will Happen: Not only is Roop taking the fight on short notice - and thus be hard-pressed to be in shape for August 8 - he’s a less impressive fighter in general. He doesn’t always capitalize on his size, as he gets submitted almost as often as he submits opponents. Sotiropoulos should be the hungrier fighter. At your offshore sportsbook, bet on George Sotiropoulos to beat George Roop.

UFC betting pick: George Sotiropoulos

Lennox vs Villefort odds

Jesse Lennox (10-1)
Lennox is a native of Iowa who will be making his UFC debut, and he’s a versatile fighter who was trained by Miletich Fighting Systems, which was also the home of such greats such as Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver and Tim Sylvia. Five of Lennox’s wins have come by knockout, while the other five were submissions, and only one of his 11 fights have gone to the third round. His sole loss came in March 2008, when he submitted to an Emry Bussade kneebar.

Danillo Villefort (9-2)
Villefort is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter who also has a background in judo, and he’ll also be making his debut in the UFC. His godfather is former UFC heavyweight champion and MMA legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, so he’s had a good teacher. Five of Villefort’s wins were a result of a submission, while three were by knockout. He lost back-to-back fights in 2006, both by TKO, but he’s since reeled off five straight wins, four of which came in the first round.

What Will Happen: Sportsbook players could have a tough time in this contest as UFC betting players won’t be very familiar with these two. Villefort started out as a middleweight before the IFL failed to resign him, and then the WEC middleweight division disbanded, forcing him to drop down to welterweight, although he didn’t appear to be bothered when he knocked out Mike Campbell in the first round of their January fight. Ironically, the last fight for both of these men came at WEC 38, so they’ve had their eye on each other, and this fight is a springboard for other things, so this could go the distance. Take the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter in a decision.

UFC betting pick: Danillo Villefort

For more UFC odds and sports betting info, keep reading the Betting Edge at

Jack “the Hammer” Howard is new to the MMA handicapping game, but his roots in the sport run deep. He enjoyed a brief amateur career in mixed martial arts and also has some boxing experience under his belt, making him an authority on the subject. Thoughts or questions?



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