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UFC 140 Betting Odds – Mir Takes Out “Big Nog” Again In Heavyweight Rematch

Posted by on 11/29/2011 5:24:08 PM
ufc 140 betting odds

Online betting players have a big card to look forward to in Toronto for UFC 140 as the larger weight classes are in the spotlight, and in the heavyweight division, Frank Mir will take on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in the second meeting between these two warriors. This is going to be a war for the ages as both men look to move up the ladder at heavyweight, and we’re picking the winner of the first to go and take the second meeting as well.

What: UFC Betting
When: Saturday, December 10th, 9:00 PM ET (PPV card starts)
Where: Air Canada Center, Toronto, ON
Pick: Frank Mir -260

Why Bet On Frank Mir (15-5)

When you talk about the biggest fighters in the UFC, whether literally or figuratively, it’s easy to forget about Mir, but his list of accomplishments should earn him some consideration when it comes to the greats of the company, and maybe even the Hall of Fame if he can win the title again. Mir has won both the heavyweight and interim heavyweight titles, and the fact that he came all the way back from a motorcycle accident that almost killed him in 2004 says volumes about his toughness. Mir is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, along with a black belt in kenpo karate, eight of his wins have come via submission and he may have the best ground game of any heavyweight in the world. That isn’t to say that Mir doesn’t have knockout power; just ask Nogueira, who suffered a TKO in the first meeting at UFC 92 in December 2008.

Mir has won his last two fights, a KO of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic and a unanimous decision over Roy Nelson, and he knows another win over “Big Nog” will put him in the mix for a title shot. But Mir’s UFC betting odds depend heavily on his chin and his ability to take a punch; all five of his losses have come via knockout. It’ll be interesting to see if his opponent tries to take him to the mat as Mir’s takedown defense is a little suspect. Finally, in the first fight, Mir may have surprised Nogueira with his improved boxing and striking; can he do it again in Toronto?

Why Bet On Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1, 1 NC)

“Big Nog” may not have been in danger of being cut from the UFC heading into his last match against Brandon Schaub, but he didn’t hurt his cause to stay in the promotion with a KO of the highly-touted up-and-comer in Brazil, his home country, back in August. He is one of three men to hold titles in Pride and the UFC, and he has been through some wars over his career. We said Mir has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and he’s excellent, but Nogueira’s experience may give him the edge; his BJJ is so good that he taught pound-for-pound king Anderson Silva and gave the middleweight champ his black belt. He showed the boxing that we were used to see from him against Schaub, which was encouraging because we didn’t see it against Cain Velasquez, who rolled through Nogueira on his way to the title, which he has since lost to Junior Dos Santos. Velasquez badly outclassed Nogueira standing up, which is something that no one saw coming, but it appears as though Nogueira went back to the lab and really worked on his technique, which he would love to show off against Mir.

Nogueira’s top attributes were his chin and his stamina, but the chin has come into question as he has been stopped in two of his last four fights, and even though he took some strong punches in a win over Randy Couture in August 2009, Couture was well past his prime and that was two years ago. Mir has much more power than Couture did, which Nogueira felt in 2008. As for the stamina, “Minotauro” has gone the distance just once in his last five fights and again, that was against an older Couture. Mir is going to push the issue throughout the fight and this will be a strong test for Nogueira.


How It Will Play Out

UFC betting odds have Mir as a -260 favorite in this heavyweight affair, while Nogueira is rated at +220 in this rematch, and there is nothing on the line in this fight, unlike the first bout where Mir took the interim heavyweight title from Nogueira. Mir has been impressive in his last two fights, while many were counting Nogueira out heading into his clash with Schaub, but this fight is going to be much closer than you think.

It would be great if this went to the mat because we would get to see two real heavyweights show that the big guys have technique and aren’t just aiming to knock your head off. Both are excellent on the mat, and we’re sure Nogueira won’t underestimate Mir’s punching power anymore. This is going to be a test of wills and even though Nogueira may not be finished yet, a slight edge goes to Mir for having less wear and tear on his body and he has a little more momentum. In a fight that could overshadow the light-heavyweight championship tilt between Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida, take Frank Mir in your sports betting book.

UFC 140 Betting Pick: Frank Mir

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