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UFC 143 Betting – Diaz Outlasts Condit In Early “Fight Of The Year” Candidate

Posted by Jack “The Hammer” Howard on 1/18/2012 6:01:24 PM
ufc 143 bettingl

Online betting players have seen the welterweight division in the UFC undergo a number of changes over the last few months, and now there is an interim belt up for grabs since the reigning champion is on the shelf because of an injury. He was supposed to fight on this Super Bowl weekend card at UFC 143, but instead we’ll get Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit battling for the interim title, and you should lean towards Diaz in what could be a classic.

What: UFC Betting
When: Saturday, February 4th, 7:00 PM (tentative start for prelims)
Where: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, NV
Pick: Nick Diaz -165

Why Bet On Nick Diaz (26-7, 1 NC, 13 KOs)

Diaz hasn’t lost since November 2007, which spans his last 11 fights, and he even avenged that loss to K.J. Noons in October 2010. He had a semi-successful run in the UFC during the first decade of the 2000s before leaving in 2007, fighting in Dream and Elite XC before landing in Strikeforce, where he won the 170-pound title (and was involved in a brawl featuring teammate Jake Shields and Jason “Mayhem” Miller). He returned to the UFC, joining his younger brother Nate as well as Shields, and he called for a match against champion Georges St. Pierre, which was cancelled when Diaz failed to fulfill his promotional obligations, and instead, Diaz was chosen to fight former two-division champion B.J. Penn in October. Diaz dominated Penn even more than lightweight king Frankie Edgar, using his volume striking to confuse the Hawaiian throughout three rounds for a comprehensive unanimous decision. The Stockton, California native then called out St. Pierre once again and the two were supposed to headline this Super Bowl card, but the champion tore his ACL.

For all of his bravado and strange tendencies, Diaz is as well-rounded as anyone in the MMA game. As Penn can tell you, his volume punches take their toll on you after a while, and if you want to go to the ground, you’ll be grappling with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a man with eight submissions under that belt. Diaz is a tough customer who can take a punch and has been stopped just twice in his 34 career fights. If he has a weakness, it’s his wrestling, although his takedown defense is improving.

Why Bet On Carlos Condit (27-5, 13 KOs)

Condit, who is from and fights out of Albuquerque, New Mexico, worked his way through the lower ranks of MMA before landing in the WEC, where he was the final welterweight champion. The UFC then bought the WEC and inherited their fighters, so many thought that Condit would be out of his element; quite the contrary. Condit lost a controversial split decision to Martin Kampmann in his debut in April 2009, then he defeated Jake Ellenberger in another split-decision matchup. Since then, Condit has three KOs in a row over Rory MacDonald, Dan Hardy and Dong Hyun Kim, which put him in position to face Penn at UFC 137. When Diaz was demoted because of his press issues, Condit was thrust into the spotlight against St. Pierre, who suffered a knee injury (a different injury than the ACL tear). Diaz then defeated Penn, called out St. Pierre and Condit was bumped as GSP desperately wanted to fight Diaz because of his comments. This left Condit in a tough place, but he still has a shot to earn a chance against St. Pierre if he wins the interim title against Diaz.

He has the tools to do so as well, because Condit’s Muay Thai striking is as dangerous as anyone in the UFC. His flying knee against Kim was a highlight-reel knockout and he is incredibly explosive, but some UFC betting players forget that Condit has submitted 13 opponents in his career. He hasn’t had a chance to use his ground skills yet in the UFC, and you can bet that he won’t be afraid to go to the mat with Diaz, although he has to be careful as three of his five losses have come via submission. Condit has an excellent gas tank and his chin is just as good, if not better than Diaz as he has never been knocked out.

How It Will Play Out

Diaz comes into this UFC betting contest as a -165 favorite, while Condit is rated at +135, and you should watch the line movement for this match because it could be even closer as we creep towards fight night. A lot of casual fans aren’t giving Condit enough credit because they saw Diaz destroy Penn, who is known as a legend in the MMA game. But Condit has rolled over some solid competition in his own right and he isn’t going to back down from Diaz.

This is going to go the distance and it’s going to be a matter of who wants it more in the later rounds. We haven’t seen Condit go the distance in a while, and Diaz’s endurance is the stuff of legends. Condit has to end this fight early to pull off the upset, but we’re sticking with Nick Diaz to win the interim 170-pound title in our sports betting picks.

UFC 143 Betting Pick: Nick Dia



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