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Chelsea vs Aston Villa Odds - Defense rules all as Villa, Chelsea battle to stalemate

Posted by Todd Shale on 10/15/2009 10:25:45 AM
soccer betting lineThis week’s online betting matchup in the English Premiership takes place at Villa Park, where Aston Villa will host Chelsea, who are sitting atop the table with 21 points. The soccer odds here favor the visitors, but the top two defensive teams in the league seem destined for a draw, especially as half of their last 10 meetings have ended up with both teams taking a point away.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa Odds: Chelsea -100; Aston Villa +360; Draw +260

  • WHAT: Soccer betting
  • WHEN: Saturday, October 17, 7:45 AM ET
  • WHERE: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
  • KEY STAT: Chelsea has won four and drawn five of their last 10 meetings with Villa
  • PICK: Draw +260; UNDER 2.5

Chelsea vs Aston Villa odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The first-place Blues beat Liverpool 2-0 just before the international break, which they needed as they struggled against lesser teams prior to the Liverpool match. Villa sits seventh in the table, and before the break they drew 1-1 at home with Manchester City, one of the teams Villa is fighting with for the final Champions League spot. They need this more to avoid falling behind the pack.

Betting Edge: Aston Villa

Chelsea vs Aston Villa odds maker breakdown: Offense
Didier Drogba, when he’s diving on the ground, is one of the top strikers in the world and he has six goals in his first eight games of the season, along with five assists. However, some are starting to worry about Frank Lampard, who has a single goal despite being second on the team in shots. Michael Ballack has three and it’s interesting to see how manager Carlo Ancelotti fits both attacking midfielders in the starting 11.

Of the top eight teams, Villa has scored a low of 10 goals in their seven matches, led by four from Gaby Agbonlahor. James Milner has impressed on the wing, but injuries to Ashley Young and Stewart Downing, who was signed in the summer but has yet to suit up for Villa.

Betting Edge: Chelsea

Chelsea vs Aston Villa odds maker breakdown: Defense
Chelsea is tied for the league lead with six goals allowed, and they’ll have keeper Petr Chech back after his one-match ban for a red card against Wigan, Chelsea’s first loss of the season. Alex could be fine for this game, but Ricardo Carvalho is a proven partner to captain John Terry in the back four.

Villa’s sportsbook chances rest with their defense, which is tied with Chelsea for fewest goals allowed. Richard Dunne has been immense since joining Villa from Manchester City, and he even scored against his former team two weeks ago. Brad Friedel has long been one of the most underrated keepers in England.

Betting Edge: Draw

Chelsea vs Aston Villa odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Defenders Alex (groin) and Jose Bosingwa (hamstring) are struggling to get fit for this game, along with midfielder Jon Obi Mikel (ankle). All three are questionable for Chelsea.

Downing (ankle), Young (ankle) and midfielder Curtis Davis (shoulder) are all long-term injuries for Villa.

Betting Edge: Chelsea

Chelsea vs Aston Villa odds maker breakdown: Totals
Eight of the last 10 meetings between these two have gone under the posted total of 2.5, and it looks like this will end the same way, given how these defenses have played this year.

Pick: UNDER 2.5

Chelsea vs Aston Villa betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
The Blues hit a bit of a slide before the international break, and they looked out of sorts at the back, which is unlike them. Villa has a problem scoring goals, and losing Young could be a massive blow to a team that is already offensively challenged. But they’re strong enough at the back to hold Chelsea to a draw, which should be their main objective.

TODD’S PICK: Draw +260

For more sports betting picks and tips as we head towards South Africa in 2010, bookmark the Betting Edge at

Todd Shale contributes soccer analysis to



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