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Roma vs Inter odds - No Totti + awful defense = a long day for Roma against Inter

Posted by Todd Shale on 11/5/2009 2:15:35 PM
soccer bet oddsInter has been the sportsbook favorites in Italy for last few years due to a great balance between offense and defense that has led them to four straight Serie A titles. Inter will host a struggling Roma team on Sunday, and the Romans are missing their influential captain, who also missed this match last year. There’s no way Roma can gain a point in Milan this time.

Roma vs Inter odds: Inter -149; Roma +550; Draw +304

  • WHAT: Soccer odds
  • WHEN: Sunday, November 8, 2:45 PM ET
  • WHERE: San Siro, Milan, Italy
  • KEY STAT: Inter has won four and drawn four of their last 10 against Roma
  • PICK: Inter -149

Roma vs Inter odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
This is one of two Rome-Milan matches this weekend (AC Milan heads to Lazio as well), and league leaders Inter are coming off a stirring 2-1 comeback win at Dynamo Kiev in the Champions League on Wednesday. Roma has an important UEFA Cup match against Fulham on Thursday that may take some of their attention away from Inter, but they can’t lose many more points in Italy as they’re already 14th in the table.

Betting Edge: Inter

Roma vs Inter odds maker breakdown: Offense
Roma’s attack started the season blazing, but they’ve been hit and miss as of late. It’s even worse that captain Francesco Totti has been out for a couple of weeks with a knee injury. This means the onus is on Julio Baptista and Daniele Di Rossi to step up and carry the load, and Baptista should make his first start of the season.

Inter leads Serie A in goals scored, and while Samuel E’to has performed well since moving from Barcelona, it’s Diego Milito who leads Inter in goals after he was bought from Genoa. Milito began the Kiev comeback with a goal, and Wesley Sneijder stole in from midfield to notch the winner. Inter can get goals from everywhere, which is why they’re the online betting favorites for their fifth league title in a row.

Betting Edge: Inter

Roma vs Inter odds maker breakdown: Defense
Roma has allowed fewer goals than only Genoa, and their lone clean sheet came on October 1st in a 2-0 win over CSKA Sofia in UEFA Cup action. Roma has some talented defenders like Philippe Mexes and Juan, but manager Claudio Ranieri hasn’t gotten them to play up to par. It looks like Doni is now the No.1 keeper ahead of Julio Sergio.

Inter is second in goals allowed, and manager Jose Mourinho is one of the top tactical minds in Europe, especially defensively. Captain Javier Zanetti, Maicon and Lucio form a sold group in front of Julio Cesar, and Inter uses a defensive-midfielder-by-committee in front of them.

Betting Edge: Inter

Roma vs Inter odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
The Totti (knee) robs Inter of their most inspirational player, and Roma has won only once in five matches without “Il Capitano”. Coincidence? I think not.

Inter looks like they have a clean bill of health, which isn’t a good sign for Roma.

Betting Edge: Inter

Roma vs Inter odds maker breakdown: Totals
Six of the last 10 meetings between these two have gone over the posted total of 2.5, and last year’s 3-3 draw at the San Siro in which Inter came back from a 3-1 deficit was one of the better matches in Italy all season. With Roma’s defense, it’s easy to see Inter scoring another three. Remember, Totti missed that game after being injured in warm-ups, and all three goalscorers are back for Roma.

Pick: OVER 2.5

Roma vs Inter betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Inter has won four and drawn four of their last 10 meetings with Roma, and they should snatch a win this weekend. Inter hasn’t lost at the San Siro, while Roma has but one win away from home, allowing 12 goals in six matches. They managed a draw without Totti last year, but Roma won’t be as lucky this year as Inter will run wild.

TODD’S PICK: Inter -149

For more sports betting picks on the “Beautiful Game”, make sure to check out Todd each week in the Betting Edge.

Todd Shale contributes soccer analysis to



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