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Roma vs Milan Odds - Milan ends home woes against Roma

Posted by Todd Shale on 10/15/2009 10:22:36 AM
soccer bet oddsAC Milan’s soccer odds are getting worse by the day, thanks to an attack that is shooting blanks. Milan hosts AS Roma on Sunday, and the Romans have won three straight at Milan’s San Siro against the home team. Roma can score, but they also allow too many goals, and Milan’s veteran players will take advantage of that to lead their team to a much-needed win.

Roma vs Milan Odds: Roma +120; Milan +270; Draw +240

  • WHAT: Soccer odds
  • WHEN: Sunday, October 18, 2:45 PM ET
  • WHERE: San Siro, Milan, Italy
  • KEY STAT: Roma has won five and drawn three of their last 10 against Milan
  • PICK: Milan +270; OVER 2.5

Roma vs Milan odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
Roma is eighth in the Serie A table behind an offense that is tied for the league lead in goals, but their defense is also tied for the most goals allowed. Milan has been terrible as they sit in 12th place in Leonardo’s first season as manager. If Milan missed the Champions League, it would be devastating to their fans.

Betting Edge: Milan

Roma vs Milan odds maker breakdown: Offense
Captain Francesco Totti has been one of the best players in Europe over the last decade, and he leads Roma with six goals and four assists. Totti was recruited by Milan as a teenager, but stayed with his hometown club, where he is a legend. Daniele De Rossi has also blossomed into a goal-scoring midfielder, which boosts Roma’s odds when betting online.

Milan’s four goals in seven games is atrocious for all the talent on their team, and they need more from Ronaldinho, the former World Player of the Year. Pato has a pair, but a 20-year-old shouldn’t have to bear all the goal-scoring for one team. Also, Filippo Inzaghi, who is known for his scoring off the bench, may be better suited as a starter.

Betting Edge: Roma

Roma vs Milan odds maker breakdown: Defense
If Roma is going to be a sportsbook player in this year’s soccer odds, they’ll have to shore up their defense. Roma is tied with Napoli with 13 goals allowed, and in a league where defense comes at a premium, that’s far too many.

On the other hand, the only thing keeping Milan in the hunt is a defense that has allowed only seven goals, anchored by longtime mainstay Alessandro Nesta. Gennaro Gattuso is still one of the best defensive midfielders in Europe.

Betting Edge: Milan

Roma vs Milan odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Unless any players get hurt on international duty, both teams are relatively healthy with no notable injuries, meaning there’ll be no excuses.

Betting Edge: Draw

Roma vs Milan odds maker breakdown: Totals
Half of their last 10 meetings have gone over the posted total, and Roma’s defensive fragility could allow Milan to find their offensive spark. Meanwhile, if Milan doesn’t watch Totti, Roma could hit five goals.

Pick: OVER 2.5

Roma vs Milan betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Roma has the upper hand in this matchup, winning five and drawing three of their last 10 meetings with Milan. Last year’s games were thrillers, with Milan tying 2-2 at Roma, who then won 3-2 at Milan. Roma has been held scoreless only once this year, and that was in a European match. Milan’s veteran players know how important this match is, as it would probably end any chances they have at the title, so look for Gattuso to be all over Totti. Roma’s awful defense will allow Milan more chances than they should get, and they’ll bury them.

TODD’S PICK: Milan +270

For more information, tips and picks, check out the Betting Edge at, where we have all your sports betting needs covered.

Todd Shale contributes soccer analysis to



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